Michigan gets closer, another crazy finish in sight.

TRS has ears on the ground even in Michigan. We’ve been hearing from a variety of sources that Mitt has made some real headway in the last two days (nothing sells a candidate like the candidate themselves); that the independent sentiment overwhelmingly favors McCain after his New Hampshire win; and, that Huck’s populism is selling like No. 4 jerseys at Lambeau Field among the heavily populated industrial areas of Michigan.

The polls reflect the close and uncertain race. We are now getting some post New Hampshire polling data in Michigan as well. A local Michigan poll on Wednesday and Thursday puts Johnny Mac up 6 on Mitt, 23%-17% with Huck at 11%. The Rasmussen daily from Wednesday puts Mitt up one, 26%-25% and Huck a somewhat higher third at 17%. The latest two day average for the “Big 3” in Michigan is McCain 24%; Mitt 21.5% and Huck 14%.

We’re presently watching McCain live at a town hall style event in Warren Michigan on C-SPAN. The Senator is clearly on fire. The recent bounce in the septuagenarian step has produced the sobriquet “Johnny Mac”. Hayden Fry always said nothing inspires like victory, however small. Victory certainly proved a tonic for McCain’s style if this morning is any indication.

Similarly, the economic times in Michigan well suit the Romney and Huckabee campaigns as well. If ever a local economy needed a turn around specialist like Mitt Romney its Michigan’s automotive industrial base. At the same time, the hard times up there make the more populist image of Mike Huckabee attractive to many as having more immediate and personal solutions.

Although anything is possible the most likely outcomes are McCain winning both, or Mitt winning Michigan and Huck winning South Carolina and Mac finishing second. A McCain victory in Michigan followed by a South Carolina win would probably create the first tipping point. However, a Mitt win in Michigan and a Huck win in South Carolina with Mac second in both places puts the race back at dead even, where it sits today.

Rudy wins Florida (which appears increasingly unlikely but certainly not impossible) and a nominating convention seems almost impossible to avoid. This is what they mean by living in historic times.

Hoisted on their own petard.

One of the greatest, and least grounded, myths in American politics is the Democrat belief in racial integration, assimilation and reconciliation. The cynicism of the Democrat politics of racial pandering has never been better illustrated than by Bill and Hill as they rush to out Peron Evita herself.

We all know the blather about Bill Clinton being America’s first black President. Well, apparently Bill is trading his NAACP card for the role of First Laddy. The Clinton campaign has apparently kicked off a race war in the Democrat primary with a series of, unusual, statements from Bill, Hillary and their supporters.

Although I’ve always wondered how the Governor of Arkansas who made Confederate Flag Day a state holiday became America’s first black President, I have to say those who live by race baiting sometimes politically die by race baiting.

McCainiac Mo and South Carolina Live Debate

John McCain certainly has certainly invigorated his entire outlook with Tuesday’s Granite State win. While polling science took a shot in the bona fides last Tuesday, when New Hampshire proved that history is not always predictable, one aberration can hardly defy years of success.

Fox News and Rasmussen are two most reputable and historically reliable polling services. Real Clear is publishing both polls, both with samples from Wednesday in today’s evening edition. The average from yesterday shows:

The Big Mac Daddy-26.0
Huck-21.0
Mitt-16.5
Fred-10.5
Rudy-5.5
Paul-5.0

We couldn’t find any data of a comparable and contemporaneous nature for Michigan. The swing in sentiment is pretty dramatic from even the polling sample of January 7.

Tonight’s South Carolina debate, much like its New Hampshire predecessor, is going to rock. So,………

Let’s get it on!!

True Liberal Madness

Yes, the liberal mind is a sometimes frightening thing. The existence of the recent Iranian mock fast boat attack on US warships in the Straits of Hormuz is not debatable. Tonight we heard the preposterous claim by Alan Colmes, in support of the Iranian position, that the United States fabricated the video and audio evidence of the provocative taunt.

What do you think the dead sailors on the USS Cole would have said to do next time the Revolutionary Guard sailors come close? John Wayne said it best ---“send ‘em to Hell.”

New Hampshire (or TRS might just be right again).

Well, one amazing comeback by Johnny Mac. Simply amazing. McCain is proving that the American voter can find a complete lack of charm irresistibly charming. TRS wasn’t right about this one and I am man enough to admit my error.

Mitt and Rudy have each, in a different way, made a great point; the race is basically still tied. While pundits like TRS bloviate, reality just trudges on in its inscrutable manner. One must never forget that the nomination will be won by the candidate that has a majority of delegates at the Republican National Convention next August 30 or so.

Mitt’s right, he has the most delegates. Sure, although finishing second both times, losing New Hampshire and Iowa-key Mitt marches and the two more celebrated contests -hurts but it is far from fatal. Rudy’s also right; if he wins Florida, or places well there he will have plenty of money for February 5 and can earn huge delegate totals on Super-duper Tuesday in places like New York and California. Although Fred needs to probably hit a good triple in South Carolina Huck and Johnny Mac are clearly going to be around and winning a pretty good number of delegates on February 5 as well.

In the midst of all the chatter it is important to remember that polls, exit or otherwise won’t determine the nominations, neither do predictions nor expectations. Only committed delegates will make the call. If no one has a majority after February 5 what incentive does anyone have to get out? Every delegate becomes a poker chip at a high stakes game of Minneapolis Hold ‘em.

Good job ABC

Having reflected on the two debates last night I think its only fair to compliment ABC for a job well done. Gibson did the best job, and ABC provided the best format yet seen.

Unlike the CNN debates, ABC didn’t try and present a caricature of the Republicans or push the Democrats to Hillary. The questions mostly centered on big issues with the occasional personal insight query thrown in.

TRS has complained loud and long about the phony debates this year. Its time to reward a job well done.