Saturday, August 11, 2007

Straw Poll: Second Thoughts-Winners and Losers.

Now that the dust is starting to settle, its time to give voice to the second impression of the Straw Poll.

As I said over at my Des Moines Register blog, the crowd enthusiasm was the most significant development coming out of the Straw Poll. I talked to hundreds of people today and everyone, except the tiny number of typical cranks and conspiracy theorists, was very enthusiastic and very optimistic about 2008. While nobody thinks victory is in the bag, it was good to hear such widespread agreement that Democrat victory isn’t inevitable either. The hangover is over.

Tom Tancredo is becoming progressively more admirable. His honesty is breathtaking for a politician. Politically correct thought and speech are killing our culture become it has become chic` to disregard factual reality in the interest of self-esteem (the speaker’s or others, it rarely matters). Tancredo’s description of immigration policy is the shared experience of most of the American population, not xenophobic racial animosity. His speech will play well over the next week and may lead to a little surge in the polls.

Mitt did a great job today. His organization did everything that people expected of the Collins-Kotchel crowd. They turned out the vote and had great stage management. I heard a replay of Mitt’s Hilton speech and it sounded much more policy oriented the second time around, which is a good thing from a rhetorical perspective. Mitt does seem almost perfect, also a good thing, regardless of what the more imperfect may think. While Mitt’s recent public affection for our state is surely at least somewhat contrived (‘cause we’re not that cool) it bespeaks good manners that he at least respects Iowa enough to be nice and good sense that he wants to campaign for every Republican vote. The on-ground impact is Mitt’s appearance as a national caliber party leader today and not the “mere” meeting of statistical expectations.

Tommy Thompson, one of the greatest governors in America’s history, suffered a bad loss today. His campaign never seemed to catch on, which is odd because he is a gregarious and charming guy. The poor early national TV appearances caused the Running Dogs to stereotype Tommy and he could not break out. Too bad, if there is anyone who is capable of creative thought its Tommy Thompson.

By his absence, Rudy Giuliani was the biggest loser. As I have said in the press, McCain’s absence was an operational assumption because of his history of disregard for Iowa’s brand of retail politics, but Rudy had much to gain by participation. Rudy wants to lead the whole party, and must do so if he is the nominee. For better or worse, the national media has treated Rudy’s non-appearance in the Straw Poll as unwillingness to even compete for the mainstream social conservatives, much less promote any part of their ideology. Human nature dictates that those disregarded find the development of future enthusiasm for those who have disregarded rather difficult.

Almost everyone present today, and every voter is also probably a leadership figure in their caucus, found Rudy’s absence to be quite offensive, in an unusually personal way. The level of hostility toward Rudy was very surprising; he was clearly no one’s second choice today. Rudy needs to campaign somewhere other than high dollar special invite events in Iowa and the need is becoming more acute if he is seriously competing here. We should probably know the answer to that question in the next couple of weeks.

The biggest winner was Mike Huckabee-because he gained the most. Gov. Huckabee seemed to be surging in the last couple of weeks. Huck and his family (met his daughter and daughter in law today and both are as charming as the Gov and obviously big assets) are tremendously likeable; his debate performances have been consistently top flight; and, his campaign themes are an appealing blend of Republican “base” issues (abortion/homosexual marriage) with creative economic and energy policy so his previous failure to catch fire with the Republican primary voters was puzzling. Money typically follows a winner so perhaps some deep pockets shared the larger skepticism.

Things seemed to be changing over the last couple of weeks, more anecdotally than statistically. Conventional wisdom still thought Sam Brownback had second locked up today but most of the undecideds that I know seemed to be drifting to Huckabee in the last several days. Huck seemed a little more aggressive on the trail. There seemed to be a little more media around the Razorback.

Well, there was more than a scented zephyr floating Huckabee’s name in the wind happening. Huck outperformed anyone’s expectations today. This will generate a ton of media in the next couple of weeks. If Huckabee really has legs, he can exploit the next week’s publicity by create a pivotal moment. All made possible for him by today’s showing at the Ames Straw Poll, which is, indeed, a lot to gain.

19 comments:

Anonymous said...

This is my coverage:

I was glad to attend the 2007 Iowa Straw Poll, but I was disappointed (yet not surprised) that it paled in comparison to its 1999 predecessor. With the three national leaders absent, victory in this year's Straw Poll is like being named Batting Leader in Minor League, Triple-A ball. Honestly, can you name the best hitter in the minor leagues? I can't... well who gives a darn! He ain't no Barry Bonds!

Last time around the Straw Poll had the major league players - and honestly I felt like I was at Wrigley not Principal Park.

Then again, it'll be lovely to see Steve Deace eat crow. No wonder that Steve Deace and Jan Michelson would throw their support behind the Minor Leaguers because they are conservative talkshow radio's Minor League... Limbaugh and Hannity being the real deal.

This is not to blame those who volunteered and worked hard this year to make the event successful. The RPI fundraiser has revitalized the Party's coffers and also activated its grassroots after a stinging Midterm defeat. Psychologically, I think Republicans felt good to gather and unify under principles shared by all. If nothing more can be said, all the participants care enough about the future of the United States to give up at least part of a Saturday and endure blistering heat to help the RPI. God bless them, one and all.

My thoughts are numerous about this event. Projections blew my mind all week long because I wondered how this event could attract numbers even approaching 1999 turnout. Last year's victors were Bush, Forbes and Dole. This year's "Big Three" (Guiliani, Thompson and McCain) elected not to allocate their resources on our RPI fundraiser. This is probably the politically astute move as victory doesn't ensure the state's support for the '08 Republican Nomination.

I felt sorry for the kids who were dragged to this event as very few 5 year olds want to endure hours of listening to volunteers rant and rave. (However, I love watching everything.) Half the people there were kids and reporters or that's how it seemed. I was surprised by projections given the "big 3" weren't participating in the RPI fundraising event. I'd have stayed longer to meet Guiliani/McCain/Fred Thompson, but the best thing the losers should do is all support Romney and/or Huckabee and then MAYBE the Straw Poll would mean something on the national level. Unless that happens, we can take solace that at least the event earned maximum potential given the heavy hitters didn't come out to play this time.

Anonymous said...

I see Senator Brownshirt goose-stepped his way to third place. I thought his supporters would be too busy bombing abortion clinics to participate in the straw poll. He had to cheat and he barely got third. Zeig Heil, Sammy!

Huckabee did better than everyone (except Deace) expected. I could live with the guy if he was your nominee.

I did make it to the Ron Paul tent but only out of morbid curiosity. It was generally overrun with hippies and assorted wierdos. There were some I talked to over there who were well-spoken and versed in the constitution but the majority were just there because they wanted to end the war. They didn't even offer me one of the "special" brownies. I was pissed.

Anonymous said...

The Ron Paul Revolution crowd ate all of those special brownies themsleves before you ever got there.

Anonymous said...

From Fox News:

Thompson spokesman Brian Dumas said the governor would make an announcement about his campaign within the next two days.

"We were obviously disappointed," he said of the 6th-place finish. I think the governor worked very hard, going to all 99 counties. He did everything we asked of him and more."

Anonymous said...

According to a recently released NJDC (National Jewish Democratic Council) report, two Kansas Republicans have stepped forward to further substantiate claims "that supporters of U.S. Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS) employed anti-Semitic tactics during his 1996 campaign against Democrat Jill Docking, who is Jewish." Their statements are recounted in the NJDC report:

"The caller, I think it was a male voice, reminded me to vote for Brownback on election day," said Nicki Soici, from Wichita, who at the time was a registered Republican. "Then he said, 'We think it's important for people to know that Docking is a Jew.'" Soici told the caller that Jesus was Jewish. When she informed the caller that Docking was a friend of hers, "the caller hung up."

Steve Baru, a former candidate for an elected GOP precinct office from the Kansas City area, said that he received a nearly identical call a day or two before the election. "We just want to remind you to vote for Brownback, and to remind you that Jill Docking is Jewish,' the caller said." When Baru told the caller he was Jewish the caller abruptly hung up. Baru's caller identification system could not identify the origin of the call. Baru immediately called Brownback headquarters to protest the call.

Additional points raised in the NJDC report included the following:

The day before the election, the Kansas City Star alluded to the anti-Semitic calls, which were by that time already well known to both the Brownback and Docking campaigns, when it reported that the Docking campaign said "someone was calling voters asking them if they knew [Docking was Jewish] and that 'there were enough [Jews] in Congress already.'"
According to interviews with dozens of Kansans, NJDC found that these were not isolated incidents. Fran Hoggath, a Republican who volunteered as a telephone receptionist on the Docking campaign, spoke with people who received similar calls. "[I took] five or six calls. All referred to questions being asked 'did you know Jill Docking is Jewish, we're taking a survey,'" Hoggath said. Hoggath, who said these calls came in during the final days of the campaign, was unsure about the party affiliation of the callers who were "surveyed."
The NJDC spoke to a leader of a local chapter of a major Jewish organization in the Kansas City area, who asked not to be identified, who recalled hearing from two separate people about this type of call.
NJDC spoke with Rabbi Karol, spiritual leader of the Topeka, Kansas, Temple Beth Shalom congregation, who said he heard about anti-Semitic calls "two weeks before the election."
NJDC reported that interviews with former Docking campaign aides revealed that anti-Semitic "push polls", in which voters were asked whether their vote would change if they knew Docking was Jewish, had been used in the more rural areas of Kansas in the month prior to the vote. Docking aides said they received dozens of complaints from voters, mostly Republicans, who were subjected to anti-Semitic tactics. Former Docking finance director Todd Sandness said that the Docking campaign "kept getting calls from rural areas complaining about a poll [asking] does it make a difference to you if Jill Docking is Jewish."

Scott Spray said...

Time for Brownback and Tommy supporters to join the Huckabee camp. Had Brownback's supporters alone voted for Huckabee, he would have defeated Romney. People should realize, not only did Huckabee not have any buses, he also had no direct mail pieces, radio, or TV ads. Also, probably the smallest payroll of at least the top 6 candidates on the R side...All proves he is the strongest candidate, period. If he had Romney's resources, probably would have claimed 60% of the vote or more yesterday.

Anonymous said...

I wouldn't mind jumping on Huckabee's bandwagon, but that guy needs to learn how to fundraise or Hillary will drown him financially.

My dad's a smart guy, but he thinks Hillary will choose Obama as his running mate. I think Obama will turn more people off then on, and Hillary's far too astute to choose him as his running mate... but wow that would be cool if she did so we could whip them if we fight the right battle.

Lets get behind one person and then, united, we shall expend all resources on defeating the Lesbian/Taliban horde of the Hillary/Hussein Obama ticket.

Anonymous said...

Where is "the Chad"?

Your name sounds like a Middle Eastern country (look on the map near Sudan and Libya).

Were you raised as a Muslim?

I hope you don;t ever think about running for office with that name-

"Chad".

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