On the eleventh day following this post Iowans will caucus and, for the first time, cast actual votes for our Presidential nominee. As we enter the stretch run the Iowa race looks close and fluid. Based on our view from the ground handicaps the final lap as follows:
1st Place. Mike Huckabee/Mitt Romney (tie). Huck has surged hard in the polls. Every poll but one that has canvassed Iowa in the last twenty days has shown Huck in the lead. However, all show that lead narrowing as well. Now Huck and Mitt are in what the talking heads describe as a “statistical dead heat”. Mitt’s numbers have had little significant movement for months-Mitt grabbed a quarter of the vote early and that foundation has shown duration. Mitt recently turned out almost 1500 Republicans at the West Des Moines Sheraton providing evidence that his fantastic Iowa team is ready to produce almost every one of those supporters on January 3. Talk about your classic insider/populist contest, this thing is going down to the wire. Come midnight January 4 we may not yet know the winner.
3rd Place. Fred Thompson. Fred’s mainstream conservatism continues to represent our Republican ideological norm. When the average caucus attendee studies the issues they will inevitably find the greatest level of agreement with FDT. Republicans, being the far more rational voter, are attracted to conceptual consistency. Also, there is a wide level of agreement that FDT looks Presidential. Unfortunately, the Huckaboom-a very real phenomenon here in Iowa-won November big time in Iowa and FDT lost audience share in Republican base. Coupled with the clear commitment of the average Mitt voter the quantity of remaining undecided voters is insufficient to lift Fred above Mitt or Huck. However, third place in Iowa keeps FDT alive to fight another day.
4th Place. Rudy. As many know, TRS thinks the Giuliani campaign has a stronger Iowa organization than is nationally recognized. Rudy’s Iowa team is smart, well organized and quite likeable, all of which is well suited for a caucus election. Rudy’s slide in the national polls is real. However, Rudy is the one larger than life Republican that could gain 8-10% overnight under the right circumstances. Rudy’s organization and celebrity put him already close on Fred’s heels and a particularly lucky circumstance could vault Rudy into a near tie with the leaders. Rudy is also the candidate most vulnerable to a stroke of bad luck, like another Judy and police bodyguard/chauffeur story. However, as it stands now, Rudy seems to be in fourth place.
5th Place. John McCain. McCain (as in McClintock) has seen some resurgence in Iowa and elsewhere. His call for more troops in Iraq makes him seem prescient and foresight is an attractive quality in a President. The McCain Christmas ad is very moving and it reminds everyone of McCain’s days of true valor and fortitude. The not surprising support of Joe Lieberman (whom even most Republicans think is a good guy and real patriot) displays McCain’s relationship with Democrats as a road map away from the generation of perceived gridlock in Washington. McCain has a small but talented Iowa team that can take swift advantage of any opportunity that fortune presents but the current Iowa landscape still looks fairly grim for the Arizona Senator.
6th Place. Ron Paul. Cong. Paul is the “X” factor. Ron Paul has activated a segment of the population that has heretofore not appeared at the caucuses. Along with a small core of experienced Republican activists and the sapient use of the copious war treasury could launch Cong. Paul all the way to third.
7th Place. Duncan Hunter. The campaign hasn’t ever taken off; it’s just too hard to picture Cong. Hunter as anything but a warrior (which TRS, of course, really digs but which image seems to scare the average voter) which limits his allure for the average voter.
Ten days can be a long time in politics, ask Howard Dean. The next ten days are going to be the wildest in Republican caucus history.
1st Place. Mike Huckabee/Mitt Romney (tie). Huck has surged hard in the polls. Every poll but one that has canvassed Iowa in the last twenty days has shown Huck in the lead. However, all show that lead narrowing as well. Now Huck and Mitt are in what the talking heads describe as a “statistical dead heat”. Mitt’s numbers have had little significant movement for months-Mitt grabbed a quarter of the vote early and that foundation has shown duration. Mitt recently turned out almost 1500 Republicans at the West Des Moines Sheraton providing evidence that his fantastic Iowa team is ready to produce almost every one of those supporters on January 3. Talk about your classic insider/populist contest, this thing is going down to the wire. Come midnight January 4 we may not yet know the winner.
3rd Place. Fred Thompson. Fred’s mainstream conservatism continues to represent our Republican ideological norm. When the average caucus attendee studies the issues they will inevitably find the greatest level of agreement with FDT. Republicans, being the far more rational voter, are attracted to conceptual consistency. Also, there is a wide level of agreement that FDT looks Presidential. Unfortunately, the Huckaboom-a very real phenomenon here in Iowa-won November big time in Iowa and FDT lost audience share in Republican base. Coupled with the clear commitment of the average Mitt voter the quantity of remaining undecided voters is insufficient to lift Fred above Mitt or Huck. However, third place in Iowa keeps FDT alive to fight another day.
4th Place. Rudy. As many know, TRS thinks the Giuliani campaign has a stronger Iowa organization than is nationally recognized. Rudy’s Iowa team is smart, well organized and quite likeable, all of which is well suited for a caucus election. Rudy’s slide in the national polls is real. However, Rudy is the one larger than life Republican that could gain 8-10% overnight under the right circumstances. Rudy’s organization and celebrity put him already close on Fred’s heels and a particularly lucky circumstance could vault Rudy into a near tie with the leaders. Rudy is also the candidate most vulnerable to a stroke of bad luck, like another Judy and police bodyguard/chauffeur story. However, as it stands now, Rudy seems to be in fourth place.
5th Place. John McCain. McCain (as in McClintock) has seen some resurgence in Iowa and elsewhere. His call for more troops in Iraq makes him seem prescient and foresight is an attractive quality in a President. The McCain Christmas ad is very moving and it reminds everyone of McCain’s days of true valor and fortitude. The not surprising support of Joe Lieberman (whom even most Republicans think is a good guy and real patriot) displays McCain’s relationship with Democrats as a road map away from the generation of perceived gridlock in Washington. McCain has a small but talented Iowa team that can take swift advantage of any opportunity that fortune presents but the current Iowa landscape still looks fairly grim for the Arizona Senator.
6th Place. Ron Paul. Cong. Paul is the “X” factor. Ron Paul has activated a segment of the population that has heretofore not appeared at the caucuses. Along with a small core of experienced Republican activists and the sapient use of the copious war treasury could launch Cong. Paul all the way to third.
7th Place. Duncan Hunter. The campaign hasn’t ever taken off; it’s just too hard to picture Cong. Hunter as anything but a warrior (which TRS, of course, really digs but which image seems to scare the average voter) which limits his allure for the average voter.
Ten days can be a long time in politics, ask Howard Dean. The next ten days are going to be the wildest in Republican caucus history.
33 comments:
The real wild card in this thing is Mark Klein. Afterall, he did get 52% on your poll before he was unceremoniously removed, didn't he Ted? Let's no surpress this prophet any further. We need Mark Klein now more that ever!
Memo to John Edwards:
You have a big problem, sir. The National Enquirer is not backing down on the story about your recent adultry. As Dick Morris, former Clinton buddy, found out from "THE STAR" tabloid, when the tabloids don't back down then only two things could be true.
Either, the National Enquirer is being totally fooled by a completely believable carload of factual-appearling evidence such as emails, witness statements, pictures, and other court-worthy stuff, OR, the National Enquirer is absolutely knowingly slandering you, Mr. Lawyer, and the now-pregnant former coke head, your supposed girlfriend.
So, if this story by the Enquirer is just a big lie, then WHERE IS THE SLANDER LAWSUIT? Right, I guess the last question is the guts of the matter.
Let's not forget that the National Enquirer broke the story about the famous blue dress containing Bill Clinton's seman resulting from a blow job in the oval office by the 21 year old intern. I think that was the part of the infamous cigar marinating episode.
Back to the Future! We can't wait to do it all again!
The National Enquirer may just be correct.
Wow, Democrats reading TRS this morning.
This is a brilliant move by the Clintons. The gal is supposed to be 6 months pregnant. The primary might be over in 3 months. Can the Democrats dare nominate someone who might have a "love child" to start the general election campaign.
Of course, it could also backfire 'cause I think the Edwards voter's second choice is not the rerun of Evita. The Drama of Obama is benefitted from backwash on this one.
Do the Republicans trust the state party to accurately total their precinct votes? How will they know if Huckabee or Paul have been cheated in the back room at state HQ?
Sporer,
Sorry, but seems to me like R style posters you've had today.
Anyways, happened to see the Edwards tabloid headline earlier today at the store. Just makes me wonder what other news items (real or not) will come out between now and the caucus, or after the caucus and before NH. I'm thinking someone has to have a dirty bomb up their sleeve, ready to be detonated as needed.
I just checked the RCP polling average for R's in IA. Looks like McCain is in third place. Plus, he seems to have some real momentum. What if he finishes strong third or even second in IA, and then goes on to win NH? - As a D who realizes there is about 50/50 chance your guy will be my prez, I'm very happy to see the McCain surge of late. I could see him being a good president that I could even respect.
rf
Na, the Edwards stuff is pure Clinton. I don't believe it. Edwards is too smart for that kind of monkey business.
Yeah, these races are close. That brings out the "smear" factor where the marginal value of the negative attack is dramatically enhanced by the small margins of seperation between the candidates.
McCain's average is inflated by one 20 point result.
Agree with Spotlight. My guess is the fix is in for Huckabee. Guiliani's sliding because Kerik is likely to roll on him in exchange for a light sentence. His odds at the bookies are relentlessly worsening.
"Republicans, being the far more rational voter, are attracted to conceptual consistency."
Oh, really? Were that the case base voters wouldn't get suckered every time by promises not kept. For example, Bush promised no "national building" but that's all we've done in recent years at great cost to military readiness and the economy.
Everyone should see "Charlie Wilson's War". We're pretty close to where the Soviets were when the Afghan War went sour ending up the regime's disintegration. If we went under, we'd merge into the EU like North American Union with key decisions made in a "Brussels" located in Mexico or Canada. Most people's savings would be wiped out in the conversion to the Amero.
Ron Paul turned out a big anti-war demo in Manchester today. Impressive show. Ron, I'm with you on Iraq 100%.
Mike's playing the religion card too much and is dividing the GOP base. Mitt is the best candidate to unite the GOP and ultimately the country.
http://www.evangelicalsformitt.org/
Mitt sucks and you know it. You just cant stomach the fact that hes about to go down in Iowa ... And hard. But keep posting in the blogs ... Maybe that will change Mitts fate.
As for cheating, its a whole lot more likely that Romney would cheat than it is for Huckabee or Paul. After all, Romney is a sleazebag who has, at every opportunity show a willingness to buy-off supporters and spread lies about an opponent to win.
He’s spineless and cowardly and has no business in the White House.
Romney brings the record of success and executive experience that we need to get back some credibility for the GOP brand. He's a DC outsider with a proven record of fixing messes.
Go Romney!
Democrats want Huck to win. That's why not a single negative press release since his rise in polls. The negative Democrat press releases on Mitt have been constant. They want Huck because they see him as a light weight (theology school dropout vs. BYU valedictorian, Harvard law school/MBA school grad, etc.). Please don't fall for this. Please vote for Mitt so we don't have 4 years of Hillary. Thanks!!
Huckabee and his supporters always seem to point out that Romney's attacking him. The already nascent Huck-a-bust will undoubtedly be blamed on Romney by Huck and his supporters. However . . . I don't think that Romney had anything to do with the fact that essentially every conservative with a microphone or blog has been railing against Huckabee for the last few weeks. Need some evidence?:
Rush Limbaugh
Bob Novak
Condileeza Rice
Peggy Noonan
Charles Kruthammer
Michelle Malkin
Fred Barnes
George Will-- ( these comments too on a TV news show)
Laura Ingraham
David Limbaugh
Kim Strassell
Pat Buchanan
Sean Hannity (kind of . . . not frontal attacks, but plenty of comments expressing concern with him as the potential GOP nominee)
Michael Reagan
Glenn Beck (semi "reconciliation" ---- but then he's still not too impressed)
Matt Drudge (it's obvious that he has a bone to pick with Huckabee given his coverage of late)
Jim Geraghty
Tony Blankley
Ann Coulter
Rich Lowry
Dean Barnett
Mark Hemningway
Austin Hill
Tom Bevan
Kathryn Jean Lopez
John Hinderaker
Hugh Hewitt
Frank Gaffney
Peter Wehner
Paul Mirengoff ( here and here too)
The Editors of National Review (Oh yeah, this one too)
Conclusion: Huckabee's not a full-spectrum conservative and the GOP would be unwise to give him the nomination. Romney has had to point out the un-conservative spots in Huck's record because the MSM/DNC axis sure hasn't been (they want him as the GOP nominee) and because McCain and Rudy want Huck to win Iowa to stifle Romney's path to the nomination. However, Romney is hardly alone in pointing out Huckabee's worrisome record.
Romney is plastic. He's a Stepford candidate. He's trying to be the new prophet, a new God.
Dr. Klein-your last post demonstrates your complete lack of political sense to compliment a basic lack of legal knowledge.
Kerik would have rolled on Rudy long ago if he had anything.
We're not even close to the Soviet situation, that is plain silly.
Dude, maybe the unusually late hour is affecting my usual antipathy to your ravings but you have to stop looking for the black helicopters.
TED--The feds, or NY, won't move on Guiliani without an airtight case. If Kerik rolled on Guiliani, it would be kept under wraps until the case gets past the grand jury should the authorities think they have a case.
The Soviets didn't see their collapse coming either. Suspect you're too young to have a clear memory of the sequence of events as I do.
We wouldn't politically disintegrate the way the Soviets did. For us our creditors would demand we fully join the North American Union so that we lose effective control of our monetary policy to a faceless, unelected bureacracy in a "Brussels" located in Mexico or Canada.
Our creditors key demand would be protection of their assets by replacing the dollar with the amero. Very savvy investors like myself have all ready done the equivalent by overloading our portfolios with high dividend yielding natural resource stocks and the mega financials.
Should I leave the Republican Party because I couldn't make a credible showing in the New Hampshire I might reconsider my opposition to the North American Union. Those of us who really care about our descendants' future security are deeply upset to see their inheritances frittered away by the relentlerss collapse of the dollar the result of reckless borrowing and wild spending.
The test for me whether there is any intelligent life left in the Republican Party will on Jan 8 in the New Hampshire Primary.
The antipathy is entirely mutual.
Doc,
seriously, you've worn out your welcome, novelty, civility, and all that is decent at this point. Your relentless assault on this website must stop as absolutely nobody is taking you seriously at this point. Although, I appreciate your professed concern for fathers and the issues we suffer at hands of rather unjust custody courts I know enough to know you are not really concerned about fathers as they were only an untapped convenient vehicle that gave you a small potential constituency which you have abused. Furthermore, even if you really cared about the abuses within the family court system (I know you don’t so it doesn’t matter) you are nutz which is the same conclusion Glenn Sacks and every other father’s rights activist came to a long time ago.
So my Christmas wish is for you to fly away and leave this website alone after the Iowa Caucus which will see you get 0 to 5 total votes in my estimation. As for NH you should count on the normal .005% that any candidate can receive via mistaken votes other than that you will have no support. Whatever money you've spent on this election has been wasted and was better served for your children and grandchildren which you selfishly denied them in this foolish ego filled bid. If my Christmas Wish comes true I will not see a response from you. Unfortunately, another quote from Uncle Teddy comes to mind “Crazy People don't know they're Crazy" so I guess I should expect a response.
Another thread of shit where Klein tells us how smart he is, how rich he is, how wonderful he is, how funny he is, how dividends support his cause, the conspiracy against him............The guy thrives on being annoying. There's still enough space for Klein to tell us how he got 52% on Ted's poll....
Signing off for Christmas.
Merry Christmas fellas.
TO KEN AND KEN-I got the 52% fair and square which is why I got booted off the poll and refused a ballot line at Ames.
Never understood Jonathan Swift's "Gulliver's Travels" until I campaigned in Iowa where to my amazement the Lilliputians now reside.
Total gall to get down on my case when I was one cheated in the straw polls.
Ken Richards, you're in exile in Africa because your Republican buddies helped set up the family court Gestapo persecuting you. You have a bad case of Stockholm Syndrome manifested by identifying with your tormentors!
Mark "Cut and Paste" Klein
Mark "Cut and Paste" Klein
Mark "Cut and Paste" Klein
Mark "Cut and Paste" Klein
Mark "Cut and Paste" Klein
Mark "Cut and Paste" Klein
Mark "Cut and Paste" Klein
Mark "Cut and Paste" Klein
Mark "Cut and Paste" Klein
Any heads in the sand here? I asked yesterday how Repubs will know if the straw poll is accurately counted. No one has offered an answer.
I can see Huck's people, or Ron Paul's people, claiming to have been robbed if the count goes against them.
Why don't you all care about this? Do stolen elections come with the R territory?
Mark,
Correction Klein. You did not get a legitimate 52% (only a few hundred votes mind you since the sample was small) as 90% of those voting did so as a result of an appeal on www.iowafathers.com which had NOTHING to do with you. If fathers could swing an election we would have done so a long time ago since the father's movement is very unorganized and capable of 1 - 2% support and that assumes an articulate and viable candidate. You are not that candidate and forget Stockholm - I am a realist and it is my fault you even know about this website so I bear special responsibility for your silly annoyances.
Point blank you're crazy and your continued insistence you won Ted's poll and nobody challenges that has been repeatedly challenged (see the above para if you need a reminder). Of those who voted for you 18 months ago on a useless internet poll how many would vote for you now? Name those of IowaFathers.com who still support you since you claim your support comes from fathers.
I agree with all of those who ask you to simply leave us alone after the Caucuses since you have no reason to be here and all excuses will be gone by then.
BTW - I am no longer in Africa as that contract ended so I am hanging out at the Subic Blue Rock Dive Resort in Olongo Po for Christmas.
Ken Richards--Getting 250+ plus votes in Ted's straw poll is indeed impressive given its relatively low voting totals. If Ted and the party thought otherwise, they'd have let my results ride and grow as well has let me on the Ames Straw Poll.
The Iowa GOP and its hangers on depend financially on the money the caucus process generates. For me to do well makes their high priced political consulting and participation fees for well funded candidates are very hard sell.
My situation with the Iowa Fathers, and the movement's generally, is akin to Moses's problem. So beaten down emotionally by 400 years of slavery in Egypt, the Exodus story is essentially a one man story. Tony Taylor is my Aaron.
You must be an emotional cripple to attack me to suck up to the political scumbags who wrecked your life so to drive you into permanent exile.
No one is going to tell me, least of all you, where and when I can say and post my opinions.
Whether you're in Africa or Subic Bay, you're still still drinking the bitter waters of exile the result of your Republican buddies.
You're not safe even in exile because fall behind just $2500 in child support can result in your passport not being renewed. Could even see the feds pressuring the Blackwaters to fire "deadbeat" dads. Your "friends" set things up so you'll be hounded until the day you die.
I am sure the Republican Party is not to blame for the problems you mentioned. Republicans may not be the best friends to the plight of fathers but they certainly aren't the enemy which is what the Democrats clearly are.
I don't care what you say or who you say it to but I do care when you misrepresent that you represent fathers when it is convenient for your purposes. You do not have the support of the father's movements which should have been a no brainer if you truly represented us. Apparently you're not going to answer what happens after Iowa/NH voting so does this mean you will stay on the website claiming to be cheated of a rightful victory because Ted pulled you off the website? In all fairness I wish he'd left you on at this point or cancelled all polls since they are too easy to manipulate by those willing to manipulate them. It seems you completely blame Ted for why you will not be the nation's next President. What Power Ted must have to stop someone as powerful and all knowing as yourself!
So please answer my ONLY question at this point. Will you leave us alone after the caucus (heck, I will even settle for after NH) if you are not a front runner as you predict?
Ken--You're responsible for screwing up the father's rights folks from making significant political progress by not standing up to your buddy Ted to keep me on the poll. You admit above my victory was the result of the Iowa Fathers putting out the word about the poll.
Had I stayed on that poll I'd be dominating it now forcing the powers-that-be to seriously address our issues, and putting our cause before the national and international media.
Convinced I could have used the leverage from the poll to do very well at Ames. Romney, McCain and Huckabee are nothing without their armies of flacks. Simply blew me away, for example, Romney's millions on Ames got him only 4700 votes. What's the ICA anymore when Huckabee with their backing only draws 2700.
With the fathers fired up plus other support I could have generated with publicity off Ted's poll I would have wiped the floor with the Big Dogs at Ames.
But with you sucking Ted's political cock the party felt free to welch on a deal I made with Ted and Leon over lunch to put me on the poll by paying the $15,000 listing. The night before I was to pay the money met with Brian Iehl and BJ Smith in Marshalltown to make out strategy! On the way back spoke with Leon on my cell phone to reassure him I'd deliver the money the next day to party HQ in DM.
While you're lying on the beach in Subic with your local honey sucking you dry 24/7, the fathers are beng sucked dry the Gestapo your Republican buddies have been operating for the past 8 years.
In my version Exodus you'd appear in the Golden Calf chapter.
The GOP will do whatever's necessary to ensure Huckabee wins on 1/3. That's why I left Iowa a month ago to campaign full time in New Hampshire.
How can anyone answer Klein when the man is so very insane?
How can anyone answer Klein when the man is so very insane?
For the GOP the truth is an oxymoron!
Jesus, Klein! Nothing better to do on Christmas morning than belch forth from your filthy sewer that travesty above? "Sucking Ted's political cock"? Where do you come off with this filth you creep, you creep? And on Christmas morning? What no friends, no family, nowhere to go. I know you're Jewish, you don't have to remind me. But really man. Ahhh, if anything, you've taken another step towards totally exposing yourself as the scum most who have had the displeasure of meeting you, know you to be anyway.
A @ 6:08--What's your major malfunction, buddy? Wasn't going to let pass Ken Richards' betrayal of the fathers movement to suck Ted's political cock. Like doing that got him anything. Ken's stuck in permanent exile unless child support issues gets his passport pulled so he's sent back in chains. I'd eat my hat if dear buddy Ted defended him gratis!
I shouldn't do this on Christmas morning when the Des Moines Register reported today Iowa's casinos were filled yesterday?
Very creepy the Iowa GOP has such influence over the presidential race.
Yesterday, except for the chain gas stations New Hampshire was shut down tight. Every radio station played most commercail free Christmas music all day.
"I shouldn't do this on Christmas morning when the Des Moines Register reported today Iowa's casinos were filled yesterday?" - - Mark Klein
A typical response of the small minded, or the ignorant, "But Ma, everybody else was doing it!".
You hold yourself up as so superior, such an intellectual, and that's the best you got, Klein? A school yard taunt at best? "Nah, nah, Ken Richards, sucks cocks", what's next, Ted and Ken sitting in a tree, K i s s i n g?
Why don't you go tell your stories to the Chaplain, huh? Christ almighty you need help.
In response to the pundits; check out this blog post that points out some inconsistencies and distortions about what the pundits are saying about Mike Huckabee.
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