Sunday, January 20, 2008

Mac, Mitt and Nomentum

Yesterday was a big day in our continuing march to the RNC next August. Once again, our primaries defined nothing more lasting than incremental arithmetic growth in the delegate allocation.

Mitt won the Nevada caucuses. Like the Wyoming caucuses of two weeks past Mitt was the only serious participant in Nevada. As we here at TRS often say, it’s really all about the delegate count. The other candidates were foolish not to participate. Mitt picked up
18 delegates in the sin filled land of Kit Carson, Bugsy Sigel and Tom Jones, Johnny Mac and Ron Paul tied for second with four each. Mitt was sitting with a delegate count lead of approximately 72-19 over John McCain.

If Mitt’s Michigan triumph had any honeymoon at all it was shorter than Brett and Jes’. Like Mac’s win in New Hampshire the week before and Huck’s Iowa victory the week before New Hampshire, generated little or none of the expected media and attention boom that conventional wisdom predicted.

After dabbling in the Gamecock State, Mitt pulled out, took a victory lap in Vegas and headed south to the Sunshine State. Johnny Mac then edged Huck in South Carolina, 33-30, with FDT a distant third at 16. The loss hurts Huck’s momentum trajectory, and might dry up some money that is needed in the large Florida markets, but it doesn’t kill him.

So, as we awake on the first day of a new week, Mitt Romney can still claim to have the delegate lead. The three delegate leaders are
Mitt-72, Mac-38 and Huck-29. In a very real way, no one candidate has a majority of even the small number of delegates determined thus far.

The Real Clear average of the
Florida polls conducted between January 9 and 16 show Mac in the lead at 23.6% with Huck in fourth at 17.6%. even that narrow margin is significantly affected by a Strategic Vision outlier that has Mac up by 7% over a second place Huck. It looks like there will be a pretty clear starting point for evaluating the extent of Mac’s win in South Carolina on the Florida scene.

It also sounds like FDT is about to depart the race. If so, that frees up around eight percent. Huck continues to be the most common second choice by a narrow margin over Mitt so, statistically; they should both prosper from Fred’s departure. It is likely that Fred will endorse Mac a development that should throw a few votes Mac’s way. Since the Florida race is undoubtedly going to be very close, a few votes here or there have the potential to be huge.

6 comments:

Jack in WDM said...

Ted; It may be about time for Huck to start thinking about how he applies his current standing in the party to his maximum benefit. I don't see his candidacy actually going the distance and, I agree, the money is about to dry up. He has enough ammo to get through FLA; but super-duper Tuesday...doubtful. I really like Huck, I caucused for him, in fact. But, as a brilliant retail politician, he's about done with states where that will work. Everything from here on in is all about money and mass media advertising.
The characterization of Huck as soley the evangelical guy is way too shallow. It's his economic populist message that has the Republican establishment (panderers, liars and flim flam men like Rush Limbaugh, Hannity and the consultant class) constantly railing at his candidacy. But,alas, the establishment always wins.
It'll win with the Ds with Obama being kicked to the curb in favor of Bill's wife and it'll win with Huckabee heading back to the Ozarks in favor of McCain. But, Huck can still get some mileage while his power is at its greatest..cabinet post; VP...something a lot more significant than some meaningless plank about the unborn in the Republican platform, at least. One thing learned from this campaign though...Huck's a good guy and the polarizing class of talk show slime like Limbaugh and Hannity need to GO! They are beneath contempt. Unlike Huck, they are more about keeping us divided than about making America better.

Art A Layman said...

Ha! The dilemmas that the right has to deal with. Limbaugh, Hannity, et al, those bastions of conservative thought for, it seems, eons, are now recognized by even the conservative base as being counterproductive to progress. Cut them a little slack; they are in the business of making money after all and that's capitalism at work. That trough that conservatives slurp from.

Have to agree that Huck seems a very personable guy. To the extent that his ideas are populist I can even applaud him. I fear him with his rants about changing the Constitution to mirror the bible and his economic methodology with the Fair Tax idea; absurd!

I envision this wonderful world of GOP possibilities. If McCain wins we will have daily war meetings in the White House. Should Huck be victorious we can have daily prayer meetings. Mitt would give us, initially, daily cost cutting meetings, followed shortly by profit meetings (in a businessman's mind what's the sense in cutting costs if we can't derive profits from it). Of course Ron Paul would have daily meetings but no one would be there because his libertarian views would have eliminated everyone in government. Then, on the outside chance, we have Thompson, who would schedule daily nap meetings.

A rather motley crew to say the least.

drop dead fred said...

Huckabee want beaten in South Carolina … That piece of shit, lame ass, worthless, incompetent, lazy, faithless, thoughtless brainless, undisciplined, disorganized fuck head Fred Thompson, cut his lungs out. McCain would have been killed by Huckabee if Fred numb-nuts Thompson hadn’t pulled his votes in the upstate so Huckabee could never off-set McCain’s leads on the coast. If Fred departs, its likely the departure helps Huckabee.

Huckabee NEEDS a miracle in Florida but maybe dropping Fucktard Fred Thompson will be the miracle Huckabee needs.

In closeing: Fred Thompson: Good Riddance and FUCK YOU!

Art A Layman said...

drop dead fred:

Other than that, fred, how did you like the South Carolina primary results?

Jack in WDM said...

Yeah, Fred...is there anything Sen. Thompson can offer up to get you pony up a small contribution to his campaign? I'm not sensing a lot of daylight in your position on Sen. Thompson, tho...is that fair?

Cedar Waxwing said...

Jack..

Don't be too sure about Huck not having the funds goin into Florida..

His campaign has raised over 2 million online since Jan 1st..

McCain and Giuliani are also in similar circumstances in terms of cash on hand.. Giuliani's top staffers are working for free right now...

McCain nearly committed to taking public funds which would have limited his spending...

Romney in terms of money..is the only top GOP candidate in relatively good shape in terms of $$..however, his $$ has not resulted in victories in any of the major states so far..and he's far behind in Florida so far..

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