John McCain certainly has certainly invigorated his entire outlook with Tuesday’s Granite State win. While polling science took a shot in the bona fides last Tuesday, when New Hampshire proved that history is not always predictable, one aberration can hardly defy years of success.
Fox News and Rasmussen are two most reputable and historically reliable polling services. Real Clear is publishing both polls, both with samples from Wednesday in today’s evening edition. The average from yesterday shows:
The Big Mac Daddy-26.0
Huck-21.0
Mitt-16.5
Fred-10.5
Rudy-5.5
Paul-5.0
We couldn’t find any data of a comparable and contemporaneous nature for Michigan. The swing in sentiment is pretty dramatic from even the polling sample of January 7.
Tonight’s South Carolina debate, much like its New Hampshire predecessor, is going to rock. So,………
Let’s get it on!!
Fox News and Rasmussen are two most reputable and historically reliable polling services. Real Clear is publishing both polls, both with samples from Wednesday in today’s evening edition. The average from yesterday shows:
The Big Mac Daddy-26.0
Huck-21.0
Mitt-16.5
Fred-10.5
Rudy-5.5
Paul-5.0
We couldn’t find any data of a comparable and contemporaneous nature for Michigan. The swing in sentiment is pretty dramatic from even the polling sample of January 7.
Tonight’s South Carolina debate, much like its New Hampshire predecessor, is going to rock. So,………
Let’s get it on!!
67 comments:
Mark Klein
19 Votes
New Hamshire Primary
Certified by NH Sec of State
Wait a sec.. Romney's claiming that his term was a "pro-life" term???
Huck's early progressive answers were very impressive. Fred's attack was well aimed at Huck.
Well aimed..and well responded to by Huckabee..
Thompson tried attacking Huckabee like that in Iowa..and it didnt do him a lot of good...
19 Votes, Ted. Mark Klein got 19 votes. He sure showed you.
I cannot say that I miss him very much.
McCain, Huck and Mitt looked the best so far.
Ron Paul did a good job of dismissing the Truthers.
....... and the question itself. There might be more serious questions.
Hmm..perhaps Klein was involuntarily checked into that mental healthy facility that he so desperately needed..
Yeah, oh yeah.......that yarn he spun about Leon and I was rich.
Good job on the fast boats for Huck and even better by Fred.
I say shoot first, ask questions later when your life is on the line.
John McCain's people should be all over this blog Sporer's giving them so much attention this week.
I dont know who's answer I liked better there about the Iranian boats.. Huckabee's or Fred's....
What is he talking about???? Ron Paul has not heard of the USS Cole??? Gulf of Tonkin?
Paul just made a fool of himself again..
No one is suggesting starting WWIII..but if some terrorist is coming towards one of our ships and tries attacking our ships...they're goin down...with EXTREME prejudice...
Congressman Paul,
The Middle Eastern countries aren't going to get together with Israel and sing "Kum-ba-ya"....
This guy has no touch with reality...
Does Ron Paul know he looks silly? McCain looks like he's enjoying the show
McCain has made very good C-in-C araguments.
FDT on the NYT--priceless. Good substantive answer.
Huck gets his shot to slap Ron Paul's rather a historical view of the Middle East.
Strong answer by Huckabee on Pakistan and on Israel...nice smackdown on Paul about sacrificing Israel...
In what world would Israel be safer if the US was out of the Middle East?
Fred....that money we sent to Pakistan..they're obviously not using to go after the terrorists..
Thats the point Huckabee is making Fred!
Of course we have to have a better accounting of the money we're sending over there..
We have to put more pressure on Pakistan to get after the Taliban and Al Quida...
Glad to see Fred call out Huckabee for being a Dem earlier - as I've been saying all along Huck is nothing more than a religious liberal that thinks he's a Republican
And you've made promises Mitt that you've broken time and time again..
You've changed your positions back and forth and back again on a variety of issues...
You're for change alright..changing your mind so many times that no one knows what your core values are...
"We have no bridges falling down in Arkansas" - OUCH!
Who is Nicole supporting now that Tank is out?
Waxwing is wax on point. Musharraf has done an ok but not good job to date. He needs to understand that our street is restless also and a Clinton/Obama Administration would be likely to view Iran as an ally than it would Musharraf.
And didn't you increase spending in Congress, Fred?
If you were doing good in the Senate..why didnt you run again for your Senate seat?
Was it because you knew that you weren't going to get re-elected?
Or were you more concerned about your standing among the Hollywood elites Fred?
Fast ball down the middle and its out of the park for Huck!
Great answer by Huck on the religion question.
Good Lord, home run on the place of religion in both public and private life.
Wasn't Bubba a Southern Baptist who presumably adheres to the doctrines of his church.
Nicole is trusting Tanc's judgment and is supporting Romney for being the most likely to win and further Tom's anti-illegal immigration agenda
"I'm gonna practice it if I'm President..or if I'm not President"...
Marriage is 100% both ways...
WOW!! What a great response by Huckabee!!!
Congressman Paul..you're not electable...well..because..quite frankly..you're a nutcase!
The old debate coach in me says never ask the question
"what's going on here" which, of course, invites, really more beseeeches, the retort
"please allow me to tell you what's going on here"
the first guy who offers that answer is a daisy.
So..Nicole..you're supporting Romney's allowing of sanctuary cities in Massachusetts and Romney's employment of illegal labor on his own property?
Tanc called out Romney many a time on the trail for supporting amnesty...
Nicole..there is a reason why virtually the entire Tancredo Iowa staff went to work for Thompson instead of Romney..
Its sad to say it..but Tanc sold out..
Tanc's lost all the valuable credibility he had on the illegal immigration issue..
I think Ron Paul and Dennis Kucinich should have there very own "likefest" debate.
That would be interesting would it not.
Ah..here we go with the immigration issue....get ready for the last round haymakers start to get thrown!!!
Paul's a nutcase but we should be answering his questions as Rs
"their" own debate that is
I agree, one of the major failings of our rhetoric, almost systemically is the inability of Republicans to explain, simply but clearly, why our policies work.
We don't talk to the people nearly enough.
I hope to change that someday soon.
Fred's throwing some last minute punches here..
Let's see how Huck and McCain respond...
Speaking purely "economically" they don't come here because of subsidies, they come here because the pay scale differences and employment opportunities here rather than there
Um..I don't remember the US sending Border Control agents to Iraq, Congressman Paul...
TRS.. Your grades for the night??
Fred is not electable, he puts me to sleep every time I hear him speak. He may be on point with the issues, but he won't be able to do anything with them without being persuasive and having a bit of charisma both of which he lacks. I am not even persuaded he wants to be president, he has said he's basically just filled out the application and if he gets the job he'll take it but if not he could care less.
Luntz's "focus group" is toeing the Fred Thompson line so far...
I agree with the group.
Fred won tonight. He looked much more lively and much less mechanical.
He sounded policy smart but fun and likeable at the same time.
Huck was second and McCain third.
I'd give FDT a 28, Huck a 27 and McCain a 26.
Mitt and Rudy were good and I'd look at both around 25.
Rudy's been off his previous high debate performance the last two outings.
What think you all.
Fred needs to look up more rather than look down and he needs to get the frown off his face... the media will kill us with b/w photos of a frowning, looking down Fred. Ask Nixon if its tuff to overcome.
Fred did well..but he HAD to do well..his campaign is floundering..his money is drying up..
However..I think a lot of people are going to get turned off if he goes full negative on Huckabee like he did in Iowa..it didnt serve him well there..and wont do well there with the evangelical vote..
What is the evangelical vote? Why do we let the media pigeon hole us or a candidate's supporters?
I agree with Easy that Fred needs to "look" better in these debates..
I've noticed since Fred came into this race that he looks tired..he looks down a lot..almost too serious in a way.. like he's going to a wake rather than a political campaign..
Mitt's denying that he's pulling out of SC..even though he's yanked his ads out of SC and Florida...
Yes, exactly. Fred does not even look like he wants to be there or that he's really passionate about anything. I think that he probably is and probably really believes what he says but visually he doesn't portray that.
Nicole, I’m a little disappointed that you've tossed off your instincts and blindly followed Tanc in his ludicrous endorsement of Mitt. You know the most likely reason for the endorsement was so Romney would pay off his campaign debt right?
Mitt's in a slow downward spiral and he'll likely be out of the race after next Tuesday ... Hardly the makings of an electable leader.
An Arkansawyer here:
I thought Thompson did the best overall. Mike Huckabee is a tough one to land a punch on, I can tell you. Huckabee might have finished second, even though he took some glancing blows. He won on feeling tone.
Romney did OK, but once again seemed too plastic. At his concession speech in NH he did much better. If that guy had shown up he could have won this debate.
McCain looked smug and sounded dull, like he was trying too hard not to "lose it". It was not a terrible performance by him, but he did not help himself.
Ron Paul is the most interesting guy in the debate. The first half he did poorly on feeling tone and medium on substance. The last half I felt he won on substance- there is little doubt that he has the most conservative 20 year record on that stage. Still, Thompson is the one who looks and sounds the part though, and that can matter most in the TV age.
....and Rudy? On defense the whole night. forget about it.....
Luntz's group thinks FDT won tonight..but thinks its too little too late..
Hannity acts incredulous about their reaction...
Citing FDT's lack of experience..says he's entertaining..but questions his consistency..
Luntz is under pressure too- using the same "undecided" focus group guy hurt his "street cred".
Ron Paul tonight was the closest thing to Admiral Jim Stockdale's "Who Am I, Why Am I Here" performance back in 92...
Paul embarassed himself..and all those who have taken up with his quixotic effort...
I loved that old "Who am I and Why am I here" from SNL with Phil Hartman and too bad I missed the reprise by Ron Paul. DARN IT!
I loved that old "Who am I and Why am I here" from SNL with Phil Hartman and too bad I missed the reprise by Ron Paul. DARN IT!
Here is my $.02 on tonight's debate...and my take is probably worth less than that. :-)
GOLD:
The winner was Fred Thompson. Nobody overall in the race better understands or embodies the Republican Party platform. Although he mischaracterized Governor Huckabee on two fronts. First, on the Gitmo issue, Mike's position is SINCE the Supreme Court has ruled we can't treat them differently we might as well move them stateside and close down an operation that has bad symbolism around the world. Thompson makes that sound like Mike is parrotting MoveOn.org, when he's really just saying we're gaining nothing prestige-wise for leaving it open since the Supreme Court decision. Also, Thompson said Huckabee was endorsed by the NEA. That isn't correct. He was endorsed by the New Hampshire chapter of the NEA. He's never been endorsed by the national organization, nor was he ever endorsed by the Arkansas chapter of the NEA, either. Nevertheless, a strong outing for Thompson, who I also thought was strong in the two New Hampshire debates as well. Who knows, maybe he's finding his stride? I dunno, but as much as I like his positions I just think he's a bad candidate. A president isn't a platform, he's a person. It's a largely symbolic position. You're not a CEO as much as you're like a pastor or a priest...meaning you already have the dogma/doctrine, but your job is to move the agenda to the people in the pews. It takes leadership, tactical ability, shrewdness, work ethic, and people skills to do that. And I just Thompson lacks in all those areas. He's like a Monet, looks great from afar, but up close -- not so much. That's why he's lame on the stump. But maybe I'm wrong? Still, I look at him and I see Bob Dole...without the war hero resume.
SILVER:
That goes to John McCain, but not by merit. He earns it because his old buddy Fred did him a favor by attempting to soften up Huckabee's bona fides. All McCain needs is to get about 25% of the evangelicals in that state to think either about national security or Thompson, and that's probably enough for him to squeak out a narrow victory over Huckabee in South Carolina after winning Michigan because of the huge percentage of vets down there that he'll get. Remember when Brownback's attacks on Romney's credibility before the Straw Poll ended up helping Huckabee and not him? Well, Thompson's attacks on Huckabee's conservative credentials will help McCain more than they will Thompson, which is ironic because Huckabee is more in line with Thompson than McCain is. But who needs strategy when ego and money are involved, right? If McCain wins Michigan and South Carolina it's over before Super Tuesday...and the debate over a running mate begins. Under that scenario I believe the top contender for the veep spot would be my next contestant...
BRONZE:
...yep, my man Huck. He's everything McCain isn't -- Southern, executive, engaging, articulate, witty, young (relatively speaking), and socially conservative. Which is why I think he's the leader in the clubhouse to be McCain's running mate, if things break that way. If it weren't for Thompson's missles Huckabee would've won this hands down, he got the biggest applause of the night twice talking about Iran and marriage (which was the biggest softball question of the evening). What's funny, though, is that Huckabee did a far better job fending off Thompson's attacks talking to Hannity & Colmes afterwards then he did in the debate. I wonder if he thought it was best not to directly engage Thompson so as to avoid taking a killer direct hit in front of the voters? One piece of advice to Huckabee: I love Ed Rollins, but you might want to shut him up.
ALSO-RANS:
Remember when Mitt Romney was the "establishment" guy and his campaign was treating Iowa Republicans like vassals in their fiefdom? My, how the mighty have fallen. But I will say I thought Mitt was very polished and looked good with the time he got. The problem for Mitt, though, is that Ron Paul got more face time tonight -- reflecting his second-tier status in the minds of the media and voters right now. Michigan is do or die for him.
Rudy Giuliani belongs in this category as well. He's always very likeable and well-spoken, but the reality is that he doesn't have a rationale for his campaign. If you like national defense there's McCain. If you want the closest thing to the party platform there's Thompson. If you're a values voter like me there's Huckabee. If you like corporate/executive experience there's Romney. And if taxes and cutting spending is your thing nobody has a better record than Ron Paul. Rudy just doesn't have a basis for which to launch a campaign. And if Huckabee wins South Carolina, he'll beat Rudy in Florida because that's the one state Mike is actually the best organized Republican. If McCain wins South Carolina then Florida won't matter. Rudy should do the smart thing for him: drop out and endorse McCain in exchange for becoming his Homeland Security Director.
LOSER:
That's easily Ron Paul. Everyone loves to gang up on him, and he's an easy foil. I will say his answer about arming the Sunnis in Iraq and what history has taught us about doing that was one of the best of the night, as was his answer about his conservative record and electability. I also think no one is more right about our economic condition then he is. But let's face it...the guy is a bit of a crack-pot, which is why he so easily attracts them.
So, in closing, here are my odds for the nomination heading into Michigan and South Carolina next week:
McCain 50%
Huckabee 30%
Romney 10%
Thompson 7%
Giuliani 3%
Thanks for the update since I was asleep during the debate (being 14 hrs ahead in Manila, PI has it's downfalls)
I just saw Ron Paul's crazy answer concerning the Iranian speedboats challenge of our three warships on Michelle Malkin's website and what an idiot that guy must be. I loved McCain's facial reactions and even Mitt had a great one liner about Paul following Iranian media versions but Hume's question to Ron Paul asking who he was addressing since none of the candidates stated we should've sunk the speedboats was classic. Ron Paul was exposed for being totally out of touch with even the question and his stumbling response after being told he was answering the wrong question was even worse.
Mark Klein. 19 votes in New Hampshire.
On the Iranian Speedboats
Huckabee: "We will send them to Hell"
Thompson: "We will introduce them to those virgins"
Paul: "Let's not get hasty. Remember the gulf of Tonkin incident"
Carl "Do You Have Any" Cameron: "All of these guys backed the Captian's decision not to engage, so what are you reacting to".
Guys, that is the way it went down. I am afraid very few people know about the gulf of Tonkin incident, and how it helped drag us into a nightmare. Yeah on form he did not look good, but he had the right answer based on our history. He knew the history of such things, but the audience doesn't so they just jeer.
Also, he was right on the present, the administration's account is falling apart:
http://www.antiwar.com/porter/?articleid=12191
Mark,
There is a big difference here between the Gulf of Tonkin incident..and the incident with the Iranians..
1. At the Gulf of Tonkin..it was revealed in 2005 that it was actually the destroyer Maddox that opened fire first...and then just this past year..another declassifed document revealed that the 2nd attack did NOT occur as had been stated.
2. The Americans did NOT open fire on the Iranians..and in fact, practiced EXTREME restraint.
However, its always been the policy of our ships at sea that if they are fired upon, they will respond with extreme prejudice and destroy any attacker.
Rest assured, that if any of those Iranian patrol boats had drew a bead on any of those ships..they'd be gone..in a heartbeat!
What Paul got hammered, pilloried and then drawn and quartered over last night was his assertions that the rest of the GOP field is ready to start WWIII with Iran..
That's not what the rest of the field said at all...
Another reason why Ron Paul is a joke: The world DOES NOT need another Neville Chamberlain.
At what point can we send this crotchety, crazy old jack-ass back to Texas where he belongs?
I did enjoy a few moments in the debate were the other candidates were openly making fun of him. The look on Paul’s face was priceless when he realized that America, not just the mythological “new-cons” he keeps yapping about, don’t want him around. He’s WAY out of his league.
Now We’re also seeing the media do some digging into Paul’s record and some pretty stupid things hes said in the past … Nothing like kicking the man when he’s down, not that there’s a point any more … He’s failed to beat expectations even once in the course of this campaign from the Straw Poll to the Caucus to the NH Primary! The Ron Paul “Revolution” was nothing more than an internet phenomenon, that much is clear. However now that people are paying attention to Ron Paul in the media, it seems likely they will bring up his old trash and kill his whole political career, not just throw dirt on his presidential bid ... I personly couldnt be more happy. I HATE Ron Paul and would love to see him exit politics stage left forever.
My uncle was on the Maddox and he said they were fired upon FIRST by the North Vietnamese. I trust my Uncle Skip.
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