Saturday, January 12, 2008

Michigan gets closer, another crazy finish in sight.

TRS has ears on the ground even in Michigan. We’ve been hearing from a variety of sources that Mitt has made some real headway in the last two days (nothing sells a candidate like the candidate themselves); that the independent sentiment overwhelmingly favors McCain after his New Hampshire win; and, that Huck’s populism is selling like No. 4 jerseys at Lambeau Field among the heavily populated industrial areas of Michigan.

The polls reflect the close and uncertain race. We are now getting some
post New Hampshire polling data in Michigan as well. A local Michigan poll on Wednesday and Thursday puts Johnny Mac up 6 on Mitt, 23%-17% with Huck at 11%. The Rasmussen daily from Wednesday puts Mitt up one, 26%-25% and Huck a somewhat higher third at 17%. The latest two day average for the “Big 3” in Michigan is McCain 24%; Mitt 21.5% and Huck 14%.

We’re presently watching McCain live at a town hall style event in Warren Michigan on C-SPAN. The Senator is clearly on fire. The recent bounce in the septuagenarian step has produced the sobriquet “Johnny Mac”. Hayden Fry always said nothing inspires like victory, however small. Victory certainly proved a tonic for McCain’s style if this morning is any indication.

Similarly, the economic times in Michigan well suit the Romney and Huckabee campaigns as well. If ever a local economy needed a turn around specialist like Mitt Romney its Michigan’s automotive industrial base. At the same time, the hard times up there make the more populist image of Mike Huckabee attractive to many as having more immediate and personal solutions.

Although anything is possible the most likely outcomes are McCain winning both, or Mitt winning Michigan and Huck winning South Carolina and Mac finishing second. A McCain victory in Michigan followed by a South Carolina win would probably create the first tipping point. However, a Mitt win in Michigan and a Huck win in South Carolina with Mac second in both places puts the race back at dead even, where it sits today.

Rudy wins Florida (which appears increasingly unlikely but certainly not impossible) and a nominating convention seems almost impossible to avoid. This is what they mean by living in historic times.

23 comments:

Jack in WDM said...

Sadly, as compelling as McCain's personal story is; this guy is the wrong guy to be the Repub nominee. No matter how he paints it, he's the establishment candidate just as much as Romney is. Probably more. John is part of the Congressional Royalty and, therefore, has NO frame of reference for common people. Plus, can anyone imagine a starker contrast between a vibrant, young, charismatic Obama and the ancient McCain reading his lines off a prepared statement? Not only would he lose, he'll take all of us with him! Sorry, but pragmatism puts me on the Romney team in this one.

Anonymous said...

Sorry Jack, the Romney train derailed a month ago and the likelyhood of ever getting it back on track is about as likely as Ray Hoffman being elected Governor of Iowa in 2010 ...

Stick a fork in Romney, he's done. It seems most likley to me that McCain has the edge in Michigan because of the large indi-factor working in his favor (which is why the open primary system is a very poor way to choose a candidate.) However, Huckabee will probably take South Carolina when the Indies wont be around to save McCain's ass again.

This put the real battle for the nomination into Florida. After Romney does down like Britney Spears at a "Coke Party" in Michigan, his campaign will be over which will throw the social cons almost exclusively to Huckabee going into Florida. That basically means it will be a barn-burner for the Sunshine State.

Its 50-50 between Huckabee and McCain now as we head into he home stretch. Either way, I think we're set for a Huck/McCain, McCain/Huck ticket in November ... All we're doing now is trying to figure out the order.

Jack in WDM said...

All reasonable perspectives, anon...but, don't count Romeny out yet. I think there's still some life in that campaign. Particularly if he keep racking up delegates....that may be how this gsame plays out...delegate count.

enbedded said...

Im standing in a hotel in Grand Rapids Michigan right now Jack. Huckabee held a 500 person rally at the Amway Hotel here yesterday and Mitt stayed at the hotel himself.

It was a bad day for Mitt. Not only did he have to look at a Huckabee event packed with enthusiastic supporters, but he had to watch helplessly as his Michigan Faith and Family Values Coalition Chairman abandon his campaign and endorse Huckabee at the rally.

It was as if someone let the air our to the Romney balloon. Michigan is all McCain and Huckabee and its a very conceivable reality that Romney could finish 3rd in Michigan. If Romney fails to "win gold" here, his campaign is over. Delegates or no delegates, when you cant win a state, you have no momentum. If you have no momentum you cant raise money. If you cant raise enough money to keep the lights on, your campaign ends. Its a very painful reality for Romney that: "Campaigns don’t lose, they just run out of money."

Granted, Romney can use his own money to stay alive if he's really into the pain involved in being beaten about the head with a huge rock. But if he cant win Michigan, he’s no longer viable.

Cedar Waxwing said...

Romney's said as much..

"If we can't win here..we're not going to be able to win anywhere"..

Romney's been resorting to cull the sympathy of people in MI..talking about how his parents are buried there..and how he's such a "Michigan Man"..even though he's had no ties to Michigan for many years.

If Romney loses Michigan..he's done plain and simple. He can go on and on about having "two silvers and a gold"..but this isnt the Olympics...its the Presidency..and finishing 2nd doesn't cut it.

Anonymous said...

Lose Romney and lose me. McCain and Huckabee? Ye Gads, I'd vote for Hillary over either of those idiots. And don't give me this "but McCain is a real life American hero" nonsense either. So was my Father and so was John Glenn but neither one of them was qualified to be President. Then again neither was the AWOL Alabama Air National Guardsman (Texas Division), born-again because it helps me politically, bumbling Texas Governor, for that matter. Scheeze, we are in an ass-load of trouble.....

Little Buddy said...

WTF????? The above comment makes no sense at all.

Anonymous said...

he means GW bush you moron.

Anonymous said...

Agreed. He means W. wasn't qualified to be Prez either. I think he fucked up from the start with refunding all that cash via a retro increased child deduction. How fucking stupid was that? Should've dumped every last bit of it in a Social Security trust fund. And wrecking the budget, all this Iraq crap, NAFTA, and all this scum on welfare. The welfare scum is more of a problem than the damn illegals. At least the illegals are here to work. All this welfare scum flat on their back, getting pregnant like rats, and doing nothing but watching Jerry Springer on the TV. That's the biggest threat to America next to Bin Laden, gangs and welfare scum.

Bob Waters said...

Whether Mac wins in Michigan or not, he's either leading or close to it in every other state leading up to Tsunami Tuesday- and has opened up a 10.6 point lead over Huckabee in the RCP national average.

Come Tsumani Tuessday, it will be all over. McCain will be our nominee, people- and the best qualified candidate to be president in either party, as well as the only Republican with a realistic shot at winning in november.

It'll be time to start closing ranks very shortly. Might as well get ready now.

Bob Waters said...

Whether Mac wins in Michigan or not, he's either leading or close to it in every other state leading up to Tsunami Tuesday- and has opened up a 10.6 point lead over Huckabee in the RCP national average.

Come Tsumani Tuessday, it will be all over. McCain will be our nominee, people- and the best qualified candidate to be president in either party, as well as the only Republican with a realistic shot at winning in november.

It'll be time to start closing ranks very shortly. Might as well get ready now.

Little Buddy said...

Moron?

Just because I pointed out it made no sense? For the record I caught the born again GWB reference I was pointing out the retarded logic of a supposedly Republican person writing "lose Romney or lose me" since no real Republican would write that. I suspect the writer is a either a complete imbecile or an imposter who really voted for Democrats all his/her life anyway. The WTF statement was simply meant to show the whole post from "lose Romney or lose me" to be a sham.

Anonymous said...

Little Buddy said, "pointing out the retarded logic of a supposedly Republican person writing "lose Romney or lose me" since no real Republican would write that. I suspect the writer is a either a complete imbecile or an imposter who really voted for Democrats all his/her life"

Yep, I'd say the "moron" tag was aptly applied.

Anonymous said...

And another thing, you seem to suggest "no real Republican" would support Romney? What kind of sheer idiocy is that? Romney wants to zero out taxes on cap gains, interest, and dividends for people earning under 200 G's! What real Republican wouldn't get behind that? What do you get from Huck and Mc other than some tripe about a National Sales tax, bullshit bullet points that mean nothing, and silence. If being for Romney means I'm not a real Republican than put it on the board as such.

Cedar Waxwing said...

Tripe about a national sales tax?

The FairTax is the leading national tax reform proposal in Congress right now..

None other than our own Steve King is a leading proponent of it..

We Republicans NEED to be pushing FUNDAMENTAL tax reform.. not just cuts here and there..or tweaking that deduction or whatever.

Our tax code is over 65,000 pages of pure hell...

Tell me..what Republican WOULDNT get behind ridding our country of one of the most insidious and wasteful parts of our government..the IRS

Little Buddy said...

I never implied no real Republican would support Romney. I stated if someone will ONLY support Romney and not any other Republican they were never a Republican.

Don't twist things too hard you freakin idiot!!!!

Anonymous said...

Yeah right, eliminate the IRS. Next thing you'll know some dumbass will come in here and want to privatize Social Security. And Steve King? Wahoooo weeee boy, now there's a winner. Slob has crack pot written all over his face. He's in the same league as Mark Klein. Christ, do your homework.

Little Buddy said...

Steve King in the same league as Mark klein? Stop smoking Peyote for a minute please and then get back to us when you're ready to make some sense ok.

Ken Hoyle said...

Brothers and Sisters, Brothers and Sisters, please! Can't, can't we all just, just get along?

I do however agree that Steve King is a blow-hard bullshit artist out to line his own pocket. He doesn't give a damn about us. Don't let that slick bum make a sucker out of you. And speaking of slick bums, I'm leaning towards Romney on this thing myself.

Anonymous said...

But Romney or no Republican arguments make no sense at all in my book.

Anonymous said...

Hey Embedded - Were you drunk posting?

Anonymous said...

Romney or no Republican arguments make sense to me. Only Romney or Hillary would pander to Wall Street in a fashion to my liking. Huck and Mc don't even have a play book for that one, accordingly the Street would eat them alive. Romney and Hillary are on a par when it would come to kissing ass on Wall Street. And face it, if you're a "real" Republican and have over two, three, hundred thousand you can lay your hands on, Wall Street is where it's at. If Romney can get not taxes on dividends, cap gains, and interest through, I'll glue my lips to his ass.

Anonymous said...

So you are saying if no Romney you prefer a Democrat?

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