Tuesday, February 05, 2008

It may be even closer than we think.

If exit polls are accurate, and God knows, they frequently are not, Senator McCain’s victory today may be less overwhelming than it looked even earlier today.

It is possible that the Super Tuesday breakdown may look more like:



Is so, tomorrow morning the overall totals would look about like:


The foregoing scenario assumes a strong Huckabee southern showing and a strong Romney outing in California. The results are now only a few hours away.


Anonymous said...

So according to this, a guy who has spent $100 million (including at least $30 million of his money thus far) and all he ends up with is about 100 more delegates after Super Tuesday than a guy who might have spent 10% that. But Huckabee is the guy who should get out of the race?

Yep, makes sense to me...or not.

fox news junkie said...

Early returns from Georgia and the exit polls are making you look good Teddy.

ragnar dannenskjold said...

Let's see, are the Republicans going to nominate a socialist, a photogenic socialist or a Christian socialist?

Should be interesting.

Anonymous said...

Sporer-if the numbers hold up your predictions were spot on. Good job.

Scott Spray said...

I think you'll be close, except Huck will do a little better and Romney a little worse. If it should be a two man race, it shouldn't be Huck that drops out.

Anonymous said...

We should start a pool:

Over/Under of 11...

Combined number of teeth among Huckabee's delegates.

The Real Sporer said...

Yeah, Huck should gain a few more and Mitt a few less than I thought, although wait until the California delegation gets sorted out.

Steve Deace said...

Amazing, Ted...your forecast is almost totally spot on.

Romney is done by the way. He's been done since New Hampshire, actually, but this time it's officially all over but the continuing spending of his grandkids' inheritance.

Anonymous said...

. Yep, with the states left to cast ballots, Romney has a huge disadvantage everywhere except maybe Wisconsin. Its Huck and McCain now with the winner to likely be decided at the Alamo in March. In spite of Romney's talk, he was bloodied everywhere other than the small BS states where no one else played. That’s been Romney's MO since day 1. Grab delegates in states like Alaska, Wyoming and North Dakota to create an illusion of success ... Then get beaten with big saps in states the matter like Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida, Tennessee, Georgia, Missouri and California. Its time for Romney to go back to Boston in defeat … just like the Patriots.

Anonymous said...

Congratulations Sporer. Your predictions were as close as I've seen.

Did you think Romney was going to win in California?

Anonymous said...

I don’t think anyone outside the sound proof echo chamber predicted Romney to win in California.

Cedar Waxwing said...

Haven't seen much of Mitt since Tuesday.. Is the end coming near? Or is he going to use his speech at CPAC to try to nuke McCain?

One only needs to take a look back at the last major conservative conference at what happened when Mitt tried to make himself out to be the "conservative" in the race..

At the Values Voter Summit last fall, Mitt came in thinking that he had everything wrapped up there..that he would win their preference poll in a landslide and be able to establish himself as the "conservative' in the race..

Oops..guess Mitt forgot about ol' Mike.. It was at the Values Voter summit where the Huckaboom began....and Huckabee is the last candidate to speak before the CPAC preference poll on Saturday....will be very interesting to watch..