The truly silly season is upon us. You know, the time of year where everyone becomes an expert statistician, carefully analyzing polls to learn who is, indeed, leaning in the Presidential horse race. Not being immune to such impulses, we here at TRS have noticed a distinct difference in the “bounce” Barack “Apollo” Obama and John McCain experienced out of their respective conventions.
While Apollo was dancing, much like Rocky, Mac dug in. When the Sun God stopped campaigning to receive the worship of the faithful at his temple in Denver, Johnny Mac planned the blasphemous surprise provided by his secret weapon, even more deadly than Rocky’s southpaw switch, a woman named Sarah Palin, Governor of Alaska.
The result, Apollo/Biden’s bounce was the third smallest in history (only Carter in ’80 and Kerry in ’04 had worse conventions).
On August 24, the day before the Democrat Convention the Real Clear Politics average was Obama/Biden 45.7% to McCain/Palin 44.0%. One week later, August 31, the RCP average had grown to only 47.6% to 44.2%, a gain of only 1.9% or a relative gain in margin of only 1.5%.
Although the Pachyderms didn’t really convene until Tuesday September 2, in the interest of statistical integrity we will use the 47.6-44.2 figure from the day before the GOP convention was scheduled to commence as our basis. Moreover, our convention pretty much skipped Monday night and much TV coverage of the first night of the RNC, Tuesday, was preempted by Hurricane Gustav coverage.. The last night competed with opening night of the NFL and it’s defending champion NY Giants so the RNC simply should have had less impact had the public response to both conventions been roughly equal.
One week later, September 7, the RCP average was McCain/Palin 46.7% to Obama/Biden 44.7%, a gain of 3.7% in relative margin. Sarah beat Ol’ Joe by something like 15 million viewers and Johnny Mac outshone the Sun God, giver of all light on Earth, by nearly 3 million viewers, despite the competition with Little Eli.
The state by state gets even better. No post DNC poll shows Obama leading in Ohio or Florida, bad signs for Obama. The same is true in Virginia, where the only polls that showed Obama leading during or before the DNC were sponsored by Democrats anyway. Obama’s lead in Pennsylvania has shrunk to only two percent and to only one percent in Michigan. Close numbers in the last of those two states at this stage of the campaign show nothing but big trouble for Obama.
Today, the 9th of September, McCain/Palin now leads Obama/Biden 48.7% to 44.6%. McCain/Palin now leads among white women for the first time. A higher percentage of Republicans support McCain/Palin than do Democrats support Obama/Biden. While this race is far from over, the trajectory looks a whole lot different than it did even two weeks ago.
While Apollo was dancing, much like Rocky, Mac dug in. When the Sun God stopped campaigning to receive the worship of the faithful at his temple in Denver, Johnny Mac planned the blasphemous surprise provided by his secret weapon, even more deadly than Rocky’s southpaw switch, a woman named Sarah Palin, Governor of Alaska.
The result, Apollo/Biden’s bounce was the third smallest in history (only Carter in ’80 and Kerry in ’04 had worse conventions).
On August 24, the day before the Democrat Convention the Real Clear Politics average was Obama/Biden 45.7% to McCain/Palin 44.0%. One week later, August 31, the RCP average had grown to only 47.6% to 44.2%, a gain of only 1.9% or a relative gain in margin of only 1.5%.
Although the Pachyderms didn’t really convene until Tuesday September 2, in the interest of statistical integrity we will use the 47.6-44.2 figure from the day before the GOP convention was scheduled to commence as our basis. Moreover, our convention pretty much skipped Monday night and much TV coverage of the first night of the RNC, Tuesday, was preempted by Hurricane Gustav coverage.. The last night competed with opening night of the NFL and it’s defending champion NY Giants so the RNC simply should have had less impact had the public response to both conventions been roughly equal.
One week later, September 7, the RCP average was McCain/Palin 46.7% to Obama/Biden 44.7%, a gain of 3.7% in relative margin. Sarah beat Ol’ Joe by something like 15 million viewers and Johnny Mac outshone the Sun God, giver of all light on Earth, by nearly 3 million viewers, despite the competition with Little Eli.
The state by state gets even better. No post DNC poll shows Obama leading in Ohio or Florida, bad signs for Obama. The same is true in Virginia, where the only polls that showed Obama leading during or before the DNC were sponsored by Democrats anyway. Obama’s lead in Pennsylvania has shrunk to only two percent and to only one percent in Michigan. Close numbers in the last of those two states at this stage of the campaign show nothing but big trouble for Obama.
Today, the 9th of September, McCain/Palin now leads Obama/Biden 48.7% to 44.6%. McCain/Palin now leads among white women for the first time. A higher percentage of Republicans support McCain/Palin than do Democrats support Obama/Biden. While this race is far from over, the trajectory looks a whole lot different than it did even two weeks ago.
35 comments:
What Ted "Westboro Baptist" Sporer forgot to mention was that McCain lost his slim lead in Florida, it went from 2 points to nothing and now its all tied up.
Obama has CO, IA, NV, NM and ND over the Kerry map.
McCain also lost ground in North Carolina, Obama still has a sizable lead as far as the state by state polls go.
Anyways, it will all be over when the debates start and McCain gets taken to school on his flip flops and is shown for the same old Republican with the same old ideas that he really is.
To quote Mercury Morris
"Dont call me when your in my Neighborhood, call me when your on my block"
National polls don't mean a damn thing (that goes for either side jerking off when their guy goes ahead). Electoral map is the only one that matters.
First of all anon. 6:31
You spelled Possession wrong.
And this ladies and gentlemen is typical Republican talk.
He will go and on in a sentence trying to correct my error while making a bunch of his own.
God damn Westboro, if you where going to attack me under a anon. name you could have at least used spell check!!
I am not Anon 9:14
#1 - I am in Iraq but no amount of real evidence will convince tin foil hatters and loose changers so why bother.
#2 - I would never mock TRS because he is the most effective Iowa conservative. I am counting on TRS to lead the state back from self-destructive liberalism.
On another note, liberals are especially amusing when they attack each other and I hope they keep it up.
WOW, this is HUGE coming from Iowa City. Obama is in big trouble and he better cut Biden and get Hillary on his ticket before his "Chickens come home to roost."
Speaking of his former pastor...his chickens are coming home to roost John Edwards and Jesse Jackson style.
Take a look at this from Iowa City.
http://www.press-citizen.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080909/OPINION01/809090324
September 9, 2008
Why I've left the Democrats
Maria Houser Conzemius
Writers' Group
PUMAs, "Party Unity My (expletive)," feminist exiles from the UnDemocratic Party, are overjoyed with the selection of working mother Gov. Sarah Palin as a Republican candidate for vice president. Without Hillary Clinton, Gov. Sarah Palin wouldn't be where she is today.
Vicious Obama partisans have driven Clinton supporters like me out of the party. And PUMAs will vote for McCain/Palin in November.
Obama has a thin resume. He is a first-term senator from Illinois who has spent most of that term running for president. He was put in charge of a Congressional committee and has not held a single committee meeting. His career has been more about self-promotion than public service.
The media have vetted Palin more in a week's time than Obama was vetted in 20 months. They have crawled into her uterus and her ovaries as well as those of her 17-year-old pregnant daughter.
What's wrong with this picture? The PUMAs know.
As a lifelong Democrat, I am leaving the party with a feeling of profound regret and sadness. It's not that I'm a creationist, a pro-lifer or an environmentally unfriendly person, but as Susan B. Anthony said, no woman should support a party that doesn't support her.
It's not enough, as a PUMA interviewed by CNN at the Republican Convention said, to wave abortion and the Supreme Court in our faces to "keep us in line." No, we don't have to come home to the UnDemocratic party because we have nowhere else to go.
We own our own votes. We PUMAs waved our orange scarves at the Republican Convention and McCain wore an orange tie in our honor.
I talked to a former Clinton supporter at the Labor Day picnic. She is planning to vote, but not for president. She "can't vote for McCain" and won't vote for Obama.
I talked to a 20-year-old UI sophomore who supports Obama. She admitted that at her Coralville caucus, the Obama supporters shouted down the Clinton supporters and refused to let them speak.
So what's democratic about the Democratic Party lately? Not much. We women are welcome to donate to UnDemocratic candidates and volunteer our time.
But when we ask for a seat at the head of the table, all bets are off.
Why would we vote for McCain/Palin in November? Why did General Patton force-march the Third Army through snow and mud to save the American soldiers surrounded and dying in the Ardennes Forest? We're on a forced march against the UnDemocratic Party in 2008 to open up both parties to more women in 2012, 2016 or whenever Democratic leaders figure out that we're not going to shove over for the more politically correct candidate -- albeit with little to offer but impressive oratory -- and wait our turn.
Clinton and Palin together forced Wolf Blitzer on CNN to ask an important question of his CNN crew: "Should Barack Obama have put Hillary Clinton on the ticket?"
Yes, he should have.
If Democrats lose in November, it will be because Clinton's 18,000,000 votes -- as well as her appeal to working-class men and women in important swing states with a lot of electoral votes -- weren't enough to put her on the ticket.
Democratic leaders and Big Media engineered the final outcome before the race had played itself out. Those who get caught stacking the deck, lose. More importantly, they deserve to lose.
HWC on the "Hillary is 44" blog said it best: "I am voting for the party willing to nominate a strong woman for the two highest offices in the country and take a stand against the sexist attacks from the media.
"I look forward to a day in the future when the Democratic Party is also willing to nominate and support female candidates. Then, I will have the luxury of choosing which most closely matches my views on all of the issues. But, we obviously aren't there yet."
Writers' Group member Maria Houser Conzemius blogs often on www.press-citizen.com.
Wow - this is all those silly libs have to talk about? Geez.
First - the very articulate anon at 6:31 was talking about grammar, not spelling. He was talking about communicating with words that mean something.
Your and You're mean entirely different things.
Mispells are just being in a hury.
The inarticulate party was guilty as originally charged.
Now, how about that Palin chick? Isn't she the best thing ever ever!
She checkmated the entire sky is green section of the anti-woman party.
There are many PUMAs coming out against Obama. He is in real trouble and the libs know it.
You misspelled "enlist" so please do not presume you have the foggiest idea of anything concerning military service based on television shows etc. Clearly, you have not served nor have you been to Iraq or Afghanistan so what makes you think you have a perspective on anything I have done or currently do for the military?
Ron Paul does represent a few good things but he also has a monumental ego at this point and is suffering delusional thinking as he continues an unwinnable campaign. Ralph Nader and Ron Paul are not even in the same class as Perot because Perot actually had a chance at winning. Ralph Nader and Ron Paul are destroyers of their own respective parties with their actions. I am pretty sure Ron and Ralph both support the whacky hemp crowd so they have that one in common as well.
A real man with guts and who actually works for a living said...
"Hey Ken how is it that guy up there with the your versus you're rant is a liberal?"
----------------------------
My response....
How can I answer an unintelligible question? Perhaps you are a product of the DSM High School “Drop out Factories.”
Wow, somebody got owned but good........
http://michellemalkin.com/2008/09/10/joe-biden-questions-obamas-judgment/#comments
Joe Biden questions Obama’s judgment
By Michelle Malkin • September 10, 2008 05:58 PM He means it. “Frankly” and “sincerely.” We believe you, Joe:
Transcript:
[MSNBC's] SEN. JOE BIDEN: Hillary Clinton is as qualified or more than I am to be vice president of the United States of America. She is say close personal friend and qualified to be president of the United States of America. She is easily qualified to be vice president of the United States of America and quite frankly it might have been a better pick than me, but she is first-rate. I mean that sincerely.
Yes, Joe Biden is questioning Barack Obama’s judgment out loud.
The Palin effect. Savor it.
***
Eagleton?
Comments
Comment pages: « 1 [2]
#101On September 10th, 2008 at 8:24 pm, travlinman said:
If Biden is found shot 27 times in the head with a single shot, .44 Mag pistol in his ‘weak’ hand, sitting with a clean suicide note pinned to his back, in Ft. Marcy Park on a park bench with no blood on or around him, I think that Obama needs to “one-up” McCain and put a lesbian on the ticket. It might just be time for Oprah to “come out dat closet, girl”! Gayle could become the 1st, First Butch, since Eleanor Roosevelt.
No matter what happens, I just can’t see Hillary on the ticket with Obama. I mean, Barack would be afraid to eat or drink anything on the campaign trail or at the White House if they won, and might succomb to his sudden onset of anorexia. His disorder would most likely be rooted in a fear of poisoning, not a fear of looking fat.
Hey here's a tip for you. Blogs are created to voice opinions and not to cut and paste a bunch of bullshit in. Not that I don't agree with whats there, but come on, this isn't the forum for it.
And 07:49 on 09/10 sure donkey punched Ken. That's freaking' beautiful.
On the contrary, Ken answered 07:49 and exposed the poster's ignorance in the process.
Hardly. He responded with the usual lame school yard taunt type crap. The guy is as transparent as a window pane. Talk about cut and paste, that's the same as posting the same old tired nonsense over and over and over and over and over and over again. He was owned, pure and simple...........
Are you saying he anonymously posted the Michelle Malkin piece? I don’t know about one? I doubt he would do that but you never know I guess.
I did find myself laughing when he pointed out a poster’s obvious mistake and I got his point because anyone messing "enlist" is an uneducated moron or charlatan.
I think Kenny punked anon and not the other way around.
I don't know if they are that bad but they certainly operate under an incredible "double standard."
I guess this proves, beyond a doubt, that liberals are not the only ones butchering the English language.
Do not fret libs; I am sure you can win the bad grammar contest if keep doing what you are already doing.
Get with the program loser liberal.
kenny pointed out the moron talking about military issues was an obvious phony. Spelling was not the issue at all.
Swift boated, Ken!
How does it feel?
Swift boated, Ken!
How does it feel?
Swift boated, Ken!
How does it feel?
Swift boated, Ken!
How does it feel?
What makes you think he got a degree from a community college? That would be funny but I find it highly unlikely all the same. Plus, I may not always agree with Kenny, but I do respect the man. His arrogance is matched by his ability to provide evidence when proving his points, And boys, I think your swiftboat tactics will backfire.
Swift boating Ken will back fire?
How?
When you are swift boated it doesn't matter what's true, it's what you throw out there as fact!
Swift boat, Ken! Swift boat!
Officer, sure, but how? What a joke! Who did he know? Ken, like John Kerry, got it by something other than merit.
Blogger Ken and John Kerry! Brothers in arms!
The Democrats are getting desperate...
One quick note on some issues relating to Kenny. Officers do not enlist nor re-enlist, hence the term enlisted. Officers receive an appointment, serve at the pleasure of the president and basically can resigned when they so choose. However, there are some exceptions accepting promotions, war time, academies and etc. The only officers that are under "contract" are the junior officers i.e. new 2nd and 1st Lt's. My point is everyone keeps saying that Kenny didn’t have the balls to re-enlist. Kenny chose not to extend his service and as an officer in the IRR he could come back on active duty either by choice or even by force. Yes boys and girls I served as an enlisted person and as an officer. I am now retired and I am a government contractor. You can talk all the shit you want to about prior service contractors. If the government didn’t have us they would be fucked. Also I am not Kenny.
War high paid prior service government contractors
Fantastic post!
Fantastic post!
Wow... Sometimes it is just better to shut the Rush Limbaugh's of the world up during election season.
The facts are that we dont have a conservative running for President and all the "Liberal bashing" is only making you look more and more crazed.
I am not fully decided who on I will vote for and wont be sure until I enter the voting booth, as most Americans.
But let me do you a solid Ken, If you are really a Republican and not some Democrat just trying to turn people off McCain, take it easy, focus on the issues and for god sakes remember that this election will be won in the middle!
So comments from Democratic Party leaders like "Sarah Palin is qualified because she did not have an abortion" are off limits?
Doesn't that comment bother you?
I am sure Kenny is not an idiot and I am sure you are.
Read it again, dumbass.
Really, what does it mean? You'd follow Ken into that pit of hell wouln't you?
So sad, not a thought for yourself? Believe what others tell you, no research, no thought...........
And on top of it all tomorrow the second great depression begins thats thanks to your messiah, George W. Jesus H. Christ Bush himself! All hail God on our earth, Geoprge W. "Born Again" Bush! The new messiah, our God, all that we hail , all that we praise, all that we love, George W. Jesus H. Bush!
You libs have some serious anger issues. Is Michael "I hate America" Moore your messiah?
Yeah, I'd say that post is alittle over the top too Ken. But let me ask you this, do you even own a baseball glove or a Weber grill? Do you have a foot ball in the trunk of your Ford or GM product? Do you know how to make apple pie? Do you even live in America? Yep, just as I thought, go back to reading Chairman Mao's little red book, Comrade, before you go calling somebody else an America hater.
And yet,
You have no problem with the post above mine.
Can't read either can you, Ken? Look at what I wrote, "I'd say that post is a little over the top, too". See, the word "too" indicates that I am in agreement with you. I "too" agree that the post above yours is a little over the top. You're so busy looking for a liberal conspiracy in everything, you can't even see words right in front of you. For the love of God, Ken, get a grip will you?
Also, interesting how you didn't answer any of my questions. Don't bother, while you and I think a lot alike on a multitude of issues, your lightweight fanantical blather is embarrassing.
Sorry if I missed the nuance "too" within your post. Sue me ok.
Other than that, I decided your questions are not worth further commentary.
Post a Comment