The 2012 Presidential race officially started in South Carolina last night. Former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, Congressman Ron Paul and former Godfather's Pizza CEO Herman Cain were in the starting gate at the Greenville Political Paceway. What a race it was.
Win: Herman Cain. The Hermantor entered the evening as more of a gimmick than a serious candidate. He emerged as the most Presidential sounding candidate. Throughout the evening the Hermantor's answers were on point with the audience almost every time. More importantly, Mr. Cain's answers showed an incisive mind that grasped the job of the President as America's CEO. Mr. Cain also displayed a decisive personality that knew how to prioritize and solve problems, not just blame someone else for creating them. On substantive issues Mr. Cain gave the best immigration answer a Republican has given in any similar format, or anywhere else for that matter. The identification of foreign policy problems was followed by actual real world solutions.
Mr. Cain's best answer came when asked about his lack of political experience. After pointing out that all of the nation's problems have been created by professional politicians, the next line said it all: "How's that working out".
Mr. Cain left Greenville with the audience behind him. Two separate focus groups (one SC, one national) felt Mr. Cain rocked the debate. The most ironic aspect of the Cain eruption was the love from the Gamecocks. After electing a black Republican in a white majority district (Tim Scott) the South Carolina audience and focus groups loved another black Republican. How long will people give credence to the liberal racism rants?
Place. Gov. Pawlenty. Tim Pawlenty came into the debate as the most serious of the competitors. The major downside of the Pawlenty presentation was simply a willingness to lapse into meaningless political speak. The electorate really is angry and scared. The average Republican typically finds biography or tag lines unrewarding and this year that desire for substance is greater than any time since 1980.
On the upside, Gov. Pawlenty did express plenty of substance, especially on foreign policy questions. The Governor massaged the anti-union question quite well. Gov. Pawlenty seemed Presidential and the power of that imagery is incalculable. The candid manner in which he admitted error in his initial position on "cap and trade" was wrong went over well with the audience and apparently most after action focus groups.
The most obvious and most significant difference between Mr. Cain and Gov. Pawlenty was the Governor's tendency to talk about what he had done and Mr. Cain's focus on what he would do. This is not a conventional election cycle and conventional campaigning just may not work.
Show: Sen. Santorum. Rick Santorum surprised both the crowd and this author. The ex-Senator's attack on the Obama foreign policy was spot on, particularly the distinction between new strategic policy and the tactical execution of the UBL take down. Sen. Santorum also well presented the very reasons Republicans cannot back down on the "social issues" agenda. We are defined by the nature of our society. Killing babies, homosexuals marrying, celebration of secular or invented holidays rather than traditional holidays is not the society that Republicans want.
The downside for Sen. Santorum was more stylistic and rhetorical. The Senator's demeanor and manner of speech betray, or perhaps misportray, a degree of impatience and petulance that will not play well with the electorate. The Obama seems cool, serene and Presidential (although also given to petulance and condescension from time to time) and our candidate needs to walk a fine line between aggressive attack and calm leadership. Both Mr. Cain and Gov. Pawlenty portrayed such demeanor, Sen. Santorum did not. This is a fixable problem and time will demonstrate if and if so, how quickly, the shine appears on the Santorum campaign.
The Libertarians: This author must express a degree of bias, I too tend more toward libertarian philosophy than most conservatives. Hence, I find the more radical domestic ideas expressed by Cong. Paul and Gov. Johnson rather attractive. Ron Paul is one hundred percent right, sixty-five percent of the time and about zero percent on target on the remaining thirty-five percent. The paleo-isolationism urged by both Cong. Paul and Gov. Johnson, while a popular feature of American history, is so out of place in the modern world of Jihad, terror and energy policy as to disqualify both gentlemen from the Presidency.
2 comments:
Is the national media narrative about Pawlenty being the only credible candidate really working at the grassroot level in Iowa true?
No, wish you were here to see it. Iowa is wide open. No one has a larger resevoir of deep support and about 50% of the caucus vote is still in play.
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