Wednesday, September 26, 2007

A real convention?

Have any of our readers spent their sleepless nights calculating the odds of the Republican nominee remaining undetermined until the Convention? Could 2008 produce a real floor battle for the nominee?

You bet it could. Even a
cursory analysis of the GOP nominating process shows a very diverse process. The abbreviated primary process may very well allow insufficient time for a fourth or fifth place finisher in the first four or five contest to run out of money before February 5.

If so, the game then becomes much dicier. Many of the February 5 states are winner
take all in name only. Congressional district results will determine hundreds of delegates on February 5 alone. For example, California has 173 “district” delegates whose allocation will ultimately be based on the winners in California’s more than four dozen Congressional districts. Florida has 75 delegates allocated by Congressional district.

Carried over 50 states, the permutation of candidates and delegates becomes almost infinite.

So here is an interesting query: who is the most likely winner if we go to convention with no candidate holding a majority of first ballot delegates?

90 comments:

Anonymous said...

Nah, I think we'll know the nominee on February 6th. I like your theory Ted, but I think we'll know soon after that.

Should be interesting.

MARK KLEIN, M.D. said...

Hope Ted's right. We need a real convention floor battle to begin to restore our party's luster with the voters.

I'm old enough to remember the 1952 convention when the Taft forces duked it out with Eisenhower's people. The party emerged much stronger which is why Eisenhower trounced Stevenson twice.

The biggest problem I see in today's GOP is its need to stage manage everything. Makes for good television and docile press coverage but undermines the motivation of base and independent voters to turn out for our candidates.

Anonymous said...

I wouldn’t be so sure that we’ll know what happens on February 6th. I’m convinced that a lot of the race will come down to what happens in the Iowa caucus. If Mitt Romney wins in Iowa, that’s pretty much the end of process. Romney’s got a lot of strength in New Hampshire and he’s strong enough nationally that victories in Iowa and New Hampshire will allow him to walk away with the rest of the nomination, save for a few hold-out states like New York, and maybe California which will go to Rudy, Arizona and maybe another southwestern state will swing for McCain, Arkansas, Oklahoma and possibly Missouri for Huckabee, and Tennessee for Fred. Beyond that, Romney runs the table I he wins in Iowa.

It gets interesting however if Romney loses in Iowa. If that happens, it will depend on who beats him. As of today, the only campaign that seems poised to strike at Romney’s lead in Iowa is Huckabee, but the Huckabee campaign has a lot of work to do to make that happen. But lets say for the sake of speculation that it does happen.

If Huckabee can win in Iowa, Romney will be forced into a contest where everything will ride on New Hampshire. Even if he can win in Iowa, I don’t see Huckabee finishing much better than 2nd in the Granite State which leaves it open for the taking. With a demoralizing loss in Iowa, Romney’s clear lead in New Hampshire will be diminished making it possible for another campaign to seize the state from him. The most likely suspects to do that would be Rudy Giuliani who I think will probably take 3rd in Iowa. Or John McCain who still has a good amount of support in the state.

In this scenario, New Hampshire will likely be the last stand for either Romney or McCain. If Rudy takes it, say good night to both of them. However, Im pretty sure that if Romney loses Iowa, he’ll dump enough of his own money into New Hampshire to ensure he keeps it in his column and continues in the race. If he fails however, and McCain up-ends him, this puts Huckabee in the driver’s seat for the primary contest. If Rudy wins in New Hampshire … I don’t see anyone stropping him from cruising into the nomination based on his name ID alone … All he needs is an early state victory to give him the big mo he needs at this point. So lets say for this scenario that Romney survives and wins New Hampshire. This of course kills John McCain’s campaign.

So now we move onto the totally unwatched contest in Nevada … Honestly, I have no idea who takes it. My guess would be either Huckabee or Romney because they would have the most media buzz coming out of the first 2 states and no one has really pinned much hope on Nevada so they’ll just follow the trends. They may vote with Giuliani, but if Rudy comes up empty in Iowa and New Hampshire, which he probably will, he’ll likely start pinning his hopes on the big states set for February 5 and stay out of the early states.

After Nevada we move onto Michigan. If Romney survives New Hampshire, Michigan goes his way without major incident, but its only got half of the delegates so its not as big a win as it should be.

Then we head down to South Carolina. I have a feeling that if Huckabee wins in Iowa, his campaign will be focused on winning in South Carolina. He’s got some pretty major endorsements in the state and if McCain is dead after New Hampshire, his major opposition there will be removed. I think Huckabee takes the Palomino state in a walk. This probably puts an end to the myth that people are excited for Fred Thompson’s campaign and effectively ends it. Which moves the whole race to Florida with 3 major players still in the hunt.

By now, we are nearly 20 days removed from the first nominating contest which means money is likely flowing into Huckabee’s coffers to compete in Florida, and with South Carolina and Michigan’s contests only a few days old, we likely have a major cock fight between Huckabee and Romney. Meanwhile, Giuliani will be out hitting the February 5th states hard to ensure that the big mo coming off Florida dosent sweep him up … but in reality, it probably will in most of the states.

Now we’re stuck at Tsunami Tuesday with no clear frontrunner, which means that most of the states will probably divide along regional lines with Colorado as a tossup:

Romney: Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Utah, Arizona.
Huckabee: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Missouri, New Mexico
Giuliani: New York, California, New Jersey

After that, you’ll pretty much see the other contests going to the regional favorites with no one gaining a clear advantage … Basically, Romney with New England and the upper Midwest. Huckabee with the South, Rudy with the bigger states and the West divided. That’s the scenario I see forcing a national convention, but in order or it to happen, a lot of cogs need to fall into place that as of September 27th 2007 … aren’t there yet. If they don’t fall, Romney’s our candidate for 2008 weather we like it or not.

Anonymous said...

Yeah!!!

Quack Klein is going to win the floor fight bitches!!!!!

Look out!!!!

Oh, wait, wait... there is no fucking way...

spinytimmy said...

Iowa - Romney
Wyoming - Romney
New Hampshire - Romney
Nevada - Romney
Michigan - Romney
South Carolina - Alan Keyes
Florida - Romney

My work is done here

MARK KLEIN, M.D. said...

My friend "Anonymous" says "Quack Klein is going to win the floor fight bitches!!!!! Look out!!!!
Oh, wait, wait... there is no fucking way..."

Hoping to repeat my outright victory on Ted's straw poll last summer with 52% in the caucuses by turning out among others Iowa's non-custodial parent community and parents abused by DHS.

Just returned to Des Moines with a donated luxury campaign bus I understand is larger than Romney's.

Ted, my offer is still stands of my $1000 to your $100 should place in the top three on your straw poll within 3 weeks of getting listed again. Worth winning just to get Anonymous off my case!

If I'm a nothing candidate, what's the GOP afraid?

Re Romney the well respected British bookie, Ladbrokes, has got Guiliani at even money and Romney at 9/1 for the nomination. Those odds will mean nothing should I make a good showing or win the caucuses.

Recovering said...

Let's hope it's Huckabee. He's too likeable and too sincere...even Barack Obama likes him. We need broad appeal like that. It would be a clear line of demarcation between a humanistic socialist like Hillary Clinton and a Judeo-Christian values capitalist like Huckabee. The country would have a clear crossroads at which to make a choice...

Anonymous said...

Off-topic to Mr. Sporer--

I am curious as to your legal opinion of comment number 10 (by the anonymous poster) on the thread below the Reagan t-shirt post at Cyclone Conservatives.

http://cycloneconservatives.blogspot.com/2007/09/reagans-conservative-spirit-alive-well.html

Does that comment cross any line?

desmoinesdem

MARK KLEIN, M.D. said...

Re recoveries's comment it's not personality appeal but policy content which will decide the 2008 election. That what makes Clinton such a formidable opponent.

She's got negatives as long as my arm but the electorate given a choice between her and an empty policy husk with personality appeal merely mouthing shop worn political hobby horses, she'll win handily.

Eisenhower and Reagan won by landslides because their personality appeal was backed up by innovative policy agendas.

Most readers aren't old enough to remember, or weren't even born, when the GOP wasn't the war party. Eisenhower smashed Stevenson largely because he promised to end the very unpopular Korean War. Kept his word and handily won a 2nd term.

We're making soooooooo many enemies with our meddling and relentless war making not surprised a sophisticated community like Huntsville, Alabama is reactivating its nuclear fallout shelters.

Quack klein is my homeboy said...

All the other candidates should just drop out. The are no match for the Quack Klein rEVOLution!

Quack on quacker!

President Howard Dean said...

Dr. Klein,

Good call. Online polls were the key to my success.

Good luck I say to you.

Howie

The Real Sporer said...

desmoinesdem;

Every line! Had that commentary appeared on the Real Sporer I would have had taken the heretofore unprecedented step of locating the IP address and turned it over to law enforcement.

Although I think the moron who wrote it was quoting some NY Thug DJ and probably thought it was funny, it's not.

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