Saturday, November 24, 2007

Crunching the numbers: Or an early projection of the Republican delegate numbers proves its still anyone’s race.

We are closing in on thirty days to the Iowa Caucus and its vital straw poll. However, the actual delegates for Iowa won’t be selected until next June, at the Republican State Convention. The first actual delegates will be selected by the New Hampshire primary. Now seems like a good time to project delegate numbers based on the actual rules for determining the real delegates that will cast the only real votes for the nominee.

As many of our reader’s know, TRS has a hypothesis that the Republican nomination may not be determined when Iowa selects our actual delegates RNC delegates. Some say that hypothesis is crazy but an early view of the data supports our hypothesis.

We examined all of the data for the states through Tsunami Tuesday (2.5.08). By the end of Tsunami Tuesday, the Republican vox populi will have spoken through the polyglot language of our nominating process-more than have a dozen selection methods will have been employed in the 28 states that will have at least begun the nominating process by day’s end on February 5.

In calculating the delegate totals we applied the unique nominating processes and rules for each state to a combination of the best polling data available for each state, on the ground information regarding intra-state support distribution and the historic voting patterns of each of the first 28 states. Another assumption, and one that may prove controversial, is the assumption that the top five (and six if you count Ron Paul) are all prepared (financially and otherwise) to absorb whatever happens before February 5 so that all of the now Big 5 are on the ballot in every state come Feb 5. A final assumption is that the dynamics will not undergo a significant change following the Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina results. The results are an approximation, of course, but a close estimate based on predictable factors.

The 28 states that will have at least begun the delegate selection process will furnish 1270 delegates to the RNC, assuming the present sanctions are applied to the early moving primary states. Of those, 299 will come from “Caucus/Convention” states. These delegates are a wild card of immense importance. As most know, the delegates that emerge from such processes do not always mirror the opinion polls in states that use the caucus or convention process. In most states the convention delegates are typically more conservative than is the Republican electorate at large. Moreover, such delegates have other allegiances and agendas than a mere reflection of popular sentiment.

That leaves 971 delegates that will be determined by electoral process through February 5. Based on the current polls, and assuming normal voting patterns, Rudy should be sitting around 502, or holding about 40% of the delegates determined to that point and 52% of the non caucus/convention delegates.

The remaining delegates should shake out as follows: Mitt-112; FDT-184; Huck-32; and McCain-141. While Rudy is likely to have accumulated more delegates than any one opponent, his lead over all combined is only 502-469. Those caucus/convention delegates become extremely important given such close margins.

Assuming the foregoing results, who has an incentive to drop out. Even small numbers of delegates, 60 or seventy, become extremely important in a brokered environment. The importance of small numbers of delegates would serve to keep the also-rans in the delegate count in the race. The possibility of a stop Rudy movement arising from the right also means that every one remains viable, as long as no one has a majority the race remains alive.

The Republican race is the closest in years. Small changes in fortune can dictate dozens of delegates. So get involved and stay involved until summer-’cause those 40 delegates from Iowa might just be the ones that tip the balance one way or another.

22 comments:

RF said...

Sporer,

Sorry, off topic. Since you view world politics and elections through your US-centric lense, you must have been very, very distressed about the Australian elections. Terrible news for W and R's, as surely Australian voters had W and his policies first and foremost on their minds when they cast their ballots.

MARK KLEIN, M.D. said...

Rf--You're right but I think there's more involved. Like America, Australia's "free market" approach wrecked the middle class because in reality it played out as socialism for the very rich and free enterprise for the everyone else. More extreme popular electorial backlash reflecting the same backlash are Hugo Chavez and Evo Morales in South America.

Translation of Ted's analysis: The race is wide open and anyone with a ghost of a chance will stay to the bitter end. I will too assuming I can make a credible showing in Iowa or New Hampshire. Otherwise I'm going independent and will give every candidate regardless of party affiliation a very close look.

The Iguana said...

Otherwise I'm going independent and will give every candidate regardless of party affiliation a very close look. - - Mark Klein

Well then let me be the first to say so long, Mark, it's been a real gas having you in the party. Simple fact of the matter is that you'll poll less than 1% in New Hampshire. Sorry, that's reality. Hard though reality is to grasp for someone who campaigns in Iowa and New Hampshire by placing ads in the DC "Moonie" paper and blogging all day in the New York Times. Beats me why a strategy as great as that hasn't gotten you on the National radar. In a word, "Damn!".

MARK KLEIN, M.D. said...

Iguana--Be no problem saying adios to Republicans like you. The only reason the GOP returned to power is folks like me left the Democratic Party in the late 1960s fed up with how racial politics wrecked the middle middle class world I grew up in.

I was the first on my block to become a Republican. Took quite a lot of heat until the FOBS (Friends of Podhoretz) went neocon!

Usually far a ahead of the cultural curve so if I leave the GOP, what remains of intellligent life in the GOP will follow. Then you and the political hobby horse types can rattle around in the old decayed mansion all by your lonesome with Ms. Haversham for company.

Buddy, you are a serious moron!

The Real Sporer said...

rf,

its certainly not good news for my folks, although i think that the new PM may find himself in a difficult position.

howard was reelected once after the iraq campaign began so Australians may already have moved beyond that issue.

howard was in power so long (11 yrs) that eventually the public decides to blame every problem in the world on the ruling party and to give the other guys the chance.

we are seeing the later phenomenon in the UK where the absence of Tony Blair's great leadership skills are killing labour and the torries are gaining fast.

The Real Sporer said...

rf,

here is the crucial difference between france, canada and germany and australia is the extent to which the previous canadian, french and german governments made opposition to the usa a central part of their policy.

MARK KLEIN, M.D. said...

Opposition to America doesn't drive Canadian politics. Acts a bit like some extra spice added to an opposition campaigning with a sound policy approach.

Here's a good illustration from a coffee house conversation I had this morning in very upscale Bedford, NH. Spoke with the CEO of an over-the-horizon high tech company there with his 9 year old son. Re today's ruinous American college costs told me his wife is a Canadian citizen which entitles his son to attend college there. The Canadian government, unlike ours, doesn't allow lenders to turn Canadian children in indebted serfs. Hence tuitions are truly market driven and hence reasonably priced. Likely I'll get an invitation to speak at his firm.

On the subject of Canada after Thanksgiving dinner in Detroit drove to Chicago late Thursday's afternoon to attend another shindig. Faster to go via Ontario. A shockeroo getting only 90 cents on the US dollar when refilling the tank.

The Iguana said...

Boy oh boy, Mark! You really busted a real hissy fit in response to my post didn't you? All this time I've had you as being so cold and unimaginitive - - you're really quite emotional, aren't you? I know, I know, the truth hurts sometimes, and I'm sure it must be frustrating for a man of your massive intelligence, enormouse ego, phenominal self-worth, and overall superiority, to be failing so miserably in your quest for the White House. I don't understand it either. And in light of all you've done for Medicine, the millions of financial folks who hang on your every move.......

You're right, it just doesn't make sense. Then again, what do I know, I'm a moron and you're a "Doctor".

Love,

Your Friend,

The Iguana

Anonymous said...

Klein,

Don't let the door hit you, where the good Lord split you.

Adios Quack.

Signed,
Everyone

R.L. "Bobby the Sack" Saccamano said...

Mark, seems to me the Iguana guy summed you up pretty good and you retort by calling him a moron?

I mean really, explain this Moonie paper nonsense and all this other blogging. You're getting nowhere, pal. Now it's the CEO of some "company" inviting you to dinner? What, the guy runs the place out of his garage no doubt.

Here's what I'm prepared to do for the Klein campaign:

I'm going to incorporate myself as a non-profit and call myself the CEO of the resulting Organization. See for years I've been making birdhouses in my spare time for all my friends, neighbors, and anybody else who wants one. I give "life", if you will, to beat to shit old pallets I pick up (after first asking the store manager). Something I picked up after I quit smoking to ease the nicotine addiction. Turns out I'm pretty fucking good at it too.

My point is, Mark, I'll make you a Bird House, and then you can take me out to dinner. That way you can trump up another story; Something like where you "schmoozed with the CEO of a local up and coming concern on the cusp of the coming "green" revolution".

A ha ha ha ha ha ha! So, is it a date?

MARK KLEIN, M.D. said...

Guys, let's see what the voters do 6 weeks hence.

Re that CEO possible invite he was talking about having me speak to his employees as did 2 of the major Democratic candidates did recently.

That "moonie" paper reaches a lot of people. The Washington Times is a serious national media outlet. Very good deal for me because I negotiated a very favorable rate with a 3 year contract which runs until 11/08.

My new full page comes out tomorrow. You can get a pdf by e-mailing me at mark@drmarkklein.com. As Ted and almost all the Iowa county committee officials got copies, ask them should you wish not to reveal your ip address to me and the myriad of folks who follow my every move on terra firma and in the ether.

Anonymous said...

Mark Klein blows goats.....I have proof

Anonymous said...

Mark Kleinis running ink!!!!!

Holy shit this raceis over!!!

...dumbfuck.

Jeff Fuller said...

Sporer,

Been a while since I've been over at your blog . . . it's gotten a lot busier, eh? (probably the death of Krusty and McCain's online team folding their Caucus Cooler)

Your hypotesis is an interesting one, but I think it doesn't take into account "momentum" from early state wins.

Romney's the best positioned to pick up momentum from early state wins.

This first link here explains it fairly well.

Geraghty at NRO on Early State Strategy

These other links might be of interest to your readers as well.
Why Evangelical Christians are supporting Mitt Romney

Iowans for Romney

A vote for Huckabee is a vote for Rudy

Romney's 1994 campaign flier

Keep up the good work here Sporer. I'll be back early and often.

Anonymous said...

You heard it hear first.

Romney will get beat by Huckabee in Iowa.

Sorry Jeff.

Jeff Fuller said...

Anon 11:36

Yeah, I've NEVER heard that one before! :)

Romney's has everyone attacking him now because he occupies the spot the spots that everyone desires. Early state Front-runner and the Conservative that can take out Rudy.

Rudy's attacking him because he's the only real threat to his path to the nomination.

I still think Romney will beat Huckabee here, but it's gonna be closer than I (or anyone?) expected just a few weeks ago.

We'll see how Huck handles the new so-called frontrunner status in Iowa (or even just "top tier" treatment)

Anonymous said...

Be careful what you wish for Jeff. By the time Huckabee gets somewhat of a frontrunner status in Iowa, Romney will be finished.

A stumble for Romney in Iowa means:

Mitt Romney, former Presidential Candidate.

Anonymous said...

All that does is open the door wider for Mark Klein, M.D. Bank on it, Mark Klein, M.D. will be the Republican Nominee for President.

Anonymous said...

What is Jeff Fuller's take on the next nominee of our Party for President, Mark Klein, M.D., please?

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Jeff Fuller said...

I've actually met Dr. Klein at the ICA dinner in 2006 (in Clive).

Interesting guy . . . but a little "out there." He won't be able to convince even the average uniformed voter to support him.

Anonymous said...

Thank you, Jeff. I know you to be a man of high priciples, ethics, and good moral fiber. I hereby rescind my support for Doctor Klein, effective immediately.

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