Crunching the numbers: Or an early projection of the Republican delegate numbers proves its still anyone’s race.

We are closing in on thirty days to the Iowa Caucus and its vital straw poll. However, the actual delegates for Iowa won’t be selected until next June, at the Republican State Convention. The first actual delegates will be selected by the New Hampshire primary. Now seems like a good time to project delegate numbers based on the actual rules for determining the real delegates that will cast the only real votes for the nominee.

As many of our reader’s know, TRS has a hypothesis that the Republican nomination may not be determined when Iowa selects our actual delegates RNC delegates. Some say that hypothesis is crazy but an early view of the data supports our hypothesis.

We examined all of the data for the states through Tsunami Tuesday (2.5.08). By the end of Tsunami Tuesday, the Republican vox populi will have spoken through the polyglot language of our nominating process-more than have a dozen selection methods will have been employed in the 28 states that will have at least begun the nominating process by day’s end on February 5.

In calculating the delegate totals we applied the unique nominating processes and rules for each state to a combination of the best polling data available for each state, on the ground information regarding intra-state support distribution and the historic voting patterns of each of the first 28 states. Another assumption, and one that may prove controversial, is the assumption that the top five (and six if you count Ron Paul) are all prepared (financially and otherwise) to absorb whatever happens before February 5 so that all of the now Big 5 are on the ballot in every state come Feb 5. A final assumption is that the dynamics will not undergo a significant change following the Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina results. The results are an approximation, of course, but a close estimate based on predictable factors.

The 28 states that will have at least begun the delegate selection process will furnish 1270 delegates to the RNC, assuming the present sanctions are applied to the early moving primary states. Of those, 299 will come from “Caucus/Convention” states. These delegates are a wild card of immense importance. As most know, the delegates that emerge from such processes do not always mirror the opinion polls in states that use the caucus or convention process. In most states the convention delegates are typically more conservative than is the Republican electorate at large. Moreover, such delegates have other allegiances and agendas than a mere reflection of popular sentiment.

That leaves 971 delegates that will be determined by electoral process through February 5. Based on the current polls, and assuming normal voting patterns, Rudy should be sitting around 502, or holding about 40% of the delegates determined to that point and 52% of the non caucus/convention delegates.

The remaining delegates should shake out as follows: Mitt-112; FDT-184; Huck-32; and McCain-141. While Rudy is likely to have accumulated more delegates than any one opponent, his lead over all combined is only 502-469. Those caucus/convention delegates become extremely important given such close margins.

Assuming the foregoing results, who has an incentive to drop out. Even small numbers of delegates, 60 or seventy, become extremely important in a brokered environment. The importance of small numbers of delegates would serve to keep the also-rans in the delegate count in the race. The possibility of a stop Rudy movement arising from the right also means that every one remains viable, as long as no one has a majority the race remains alive.

The Republican race is the closest in years. Small changes in fortune can dictate dozens of delegates. So get involved and stay involved until summer-’cause those 40 delegates from Iowa might just be the ones that tip the balance one way or another.