Sunday, December 30, 2007

Iowa gets closer, Mitt stays on message and Fred gets some love (or, the State of the State on Sunday morning).

Here at the TRS we’ve been chasing a theory about polls-polls are a lagging indicator. Sentiment begins to change before it’s reflected in the polls. Last summer we saw a ton of evidence that Mitt was climbing into a lead in Iowa nearly a month before that was reflected in the polls. Same with Huckabee this fall. (A guy’s gotta crow a little when he’s right does he not?)

Iowans are a well informed group of voters. Those faces in attendance at the candidate forums are usually the opinion leaders in their own social unit (e.g. family, friends and, for our Democrat friends, troop). It then takes a few days to a few weeks for the opinions to sufficiently filter throughout the larger caucus population. In turn, it takes a few more days for the polls to reflect the changing sentiment.

TRS has been talking to a large sample here in Polk and around the state this week. The last two days have been very good for Mitt. Mitt’s hard hitting new contrast ads haven’t come close to even a TKO of Huck, but they are tiring him (like Joe Louis in Rounds 1-4) and taking Huck off message. Mitt on the other hand has stayed on message like a George W. Bush message machine. Mitt’s appeared the picture of calm in his C-SPAN covered Pella appearance.

Huck, on the other hand, has been a little rattled. A couple of minor misstatements of foreign policy and the weight of Mitt’s attacks have pushed Huck on to the defense. The good news for Huck is the appearance that his numbers are growing. Several of my bell weather friends (normal, non political folk who caucus but don’t obsess) have recently (last 3-5 days) settled on Huck. Even more good news for Huck is the level of commitment his supporters have demonstrated.

The
Real Clear average reflects a tightening race, to be sure. The American Research Poll that gives Mitt a nine point lead is an anomaly. Mason Dixon and Zogby are much closer. Mitt and Huck, one way or the other, are probably not separated by more than one or two points. Obviously whoever wins gets a big boost going into the next two states. A win helps Mitt big in NH and Huck big in South Carolina.

The race for third is also changing. Big John had a run of very good days here in the Hawkeye State last week. Coupled with a good team, this put McCain in a good position. The Bhutto assassination couldn’t have come at a better time for McCain and his rival for the third, Fred Thompson.

Fred has also appeared to prosper since Christmas. FDT has been getting a lot of attention here in Iowa over the last few days and he has been doing well. We began hearing a lot more Fred buzz Thursday and it has grown over the last three days. Fred has helped himself by appearing very solid, very smart and even a little fired up in his last few appearances.

Fred certainly shone both on C-SPAN Friday and Saturday. Topping off the weekend Fred had outstanding performances on both Fox Sunday and with the Canis Lupus on CNN this morning. Fred has displayed poise, judgment and clarity in light of the Pakistan situation. Fred also continues to have the courage to talk about Social Security. Several other of my bell weather friends have also settled on Fred.

It looks like Fred or McCain or both could jump into the mid to upper teens on Caucus night. A finish in the high teens or better would give either McCain or FDT a big boost going into the next two states. Any anecdotal, statistical and analytical review of Iowa shows our Republican race to be even closer that it has heretofore been.

More amazingly, although Iowa is close, the national race is even closer. The latest Rasmussen daily tracking shows the
race tightening dramatically. Rasmussen’s results for today show McCain back in the lead at 17, Huck and Mitt at 16, Rudy 15 and Fred at 12. Doesn’t that look like a convention fight or a famous back room deal?

16 comments:

RMS941 said...

My Fellow American’s now more than ever the time has come to evaluate the Republican Candidates for President.
As time passes, we are learning more about the top-tier candidates for the Republican nomination. We are learning where they stand on the issues that face this nation. I’m learning some candidates hold positions on issues that cause me concern and I wonder, do you feel the same?

As a Reagan Republican, I’m looking for someone who is a true conservative, a straight talker, and someone who understands the dangers America faces. I’m looking for someone who has shown he can win over Independents and Conservative Democrats. I’m looking for someone that adheres to the Reagan philosophy on all issues.


Now more than ever in this day and time we the people are responsible for the character of our Government. If that Government body is ignorant, reckless, and corrupt, which it is, it is because the people tolerate ignorance, recklessness, and corruption. If our Government is intelligent, brave, and moral, it is because the people demand high standards of our representatives in the national legislature. So, I ask you, what is it that you demand?


From within the current candidates vying for the GOP nomination, I have found a candidate that holds these high standards and I would like to suggest you take a look at Congressman Duncan Hunter for President. I’m not a high-powered campaign operative; I’m just a regular guy with 3 children who’s a Reagan conservative. Let me share some of the reasons with you that I have chosen to support Duncan Hunter for President.


Today, it seems some have forgotten our beginnings. Instead of Americans with a shared vision, we have become a nation divided. We have become a nation of individuals and groups, each with a special interest vision, often without thought for what is best for the nation. We are, however, a nation that at one time had an immutable vision for all. Duncan Hunter is a man that has a vision for the nation, a vision that includes all men and it’s the same vision that our Founding Fathers held for this nation.


Duncan Hunter supports:


Duncan Hunter believe that God has endowed men with certain inalienable rights as set forth in the in the Declaration of Independence and that no legislature and no majority, however great, may morally limit or destroy these; that the sole function of government is to protect life, liberty, and property and anything more than this is usurpation and oppression.


1) Securing our Borders – Duncan Hunter wrote the bill to build a border fence across the southern border. He built the fence in San Diego. Duncan Hunter supports our border patrol agents and is a strong advocate for the release of Ignacio Ramos and Jose Alonso Compean.


2) Our Military and their Mission – a decorated Vietnam Army Ranger with 26 years on the Armed Services Committee. Duncan Hunter has the experience to lead America in a time of war.


3) Fair Trade Policies – Duncan Hunter Insists trading partners such as China stop cheating on trade agreements. Duncan Hunter will protect American Jobs. This is not protectionism, but fair and equitable trade.


4) The Sanctity of Life – Duncan Hunter has earned a 100% rating from the National Right to Life, Concerned Women for America, Eagle Forum, and the Family Research Council.


5) The 2nd Amendment – Duncan Hunter earned an A+ rating from the National Rifle Association and an A from Gun Owners of America.


These are the Conservative Values of the Republican Party. Let's face it, the Republican nominee is going to get support from many quarters because of whom the Democrats are going to nominate. They just don't share the values of mainstream America. Why not nominate a candidate who supports conservative values. History shows when we nominate Presidential candidates with strong conservative credentials, we win elections.


When we don't, we lose. Incidentally, Duncan Hunter first won his seat in a heavily Democrat District against a sitting Congressman, so he has proven that he can win as a conservative.


So, I say to you, as a Reagan Republican, I will vote for Duncan Hunter and work to put him in the White House 2008. Please take time to give Duncan Hunter another look, as I did. There is much work to be done. Time is short. Let’s begin - in earnest - and may God Bless our efforts.


PS:
I invite you to join the Duncan Hunter team for America at http://www.gohunter08.com/index.asp and help put him in the White House in 2008. I ask you to donate all you can for America and Freedom, donate to the candidacy of Duncan Hunter.

Respectfully,
Russell M. Scott

http://www.rms941.com/
http://rms941-totallyconservative.blogspot.com/
http://www.git-r-done941.net/index.php

CLW said...

Get Republican Obama Facts---

R.F.O. has two aims:
To spread Senator Obama's message of competency and unity, and help get him elected President in 2008.
To provide a forum for Republicans to debate and discuss the Presidential election and Obama's candidacy.
RepublicansforObama.org is an organization founded by proud party members who all share one important trait— we are Americans first and Republicans second. (Even if it is a close second.) Collectively, we have campaigned, worked for, and voted Republican all our lives, but recognize that our Country needs a new kind of leader at this time. While there will always be important issues on which thoughtful Americans will disagree, there are others that cannot be up for debate— our economic prosperity and our standing in the world.

While a growing number of our elected officials and media outlets use wedge issues to purposely divide us, and answer to special interest groups at the expense of the general welfare, Senator Obama has the ability to break this trend. Senator Obama has rejected the politics of division and the win-at-all-costs attitude that has hurt our ability to move forward as a nation. While we as Republicans will not always see eye to eye with a President Obama, we know that his politics of competency and unity will lead to a stronger America.

-RepublicansforObama.org

http://www.republicansforobama.org/?q=homepage

Anonymous said...

So, the New Hampshire Union Leader wants to know just exactly what is Hillary's experience? How come she won't tell us? I don't recall the Des Moines Register asking that question of her, btw.

The only experience I recall Hillary having is that of Commander in Chief of Bimbo Eruptions. She hired the goons to intimidate the many women who became playthings for Bill. She should head the CIA, not be President. Mrs. Soprano knows skullduggery and spying. Maybe she could use if for constructive purpose.

http://www.unionleader.com/article.aspx?headline=Clinton%27s+%27experience%3a%27+Exactly+what+is+it%3f&articleId=0d7ca376-f7f5-445d-9ab7-993be0893015

Terri said...

I was initially a Duncan Hunter supporter. Then I realized I needed to find a candidate that would have a chance of winning the election. I then moved my support to Huckabee because of his support of the Fair Tax and his abortion position. Then I got to know him better and thankfully the election season was long enough for me to realize the error of my ways. I am voting for Fred January 3. He is the only candidate that makes sense. Romney was never a consideration for me because he is too liberal (a RINO) and a flip flopper. How can we nominate someone who has the same problem as John Kerry? The people who support Romney are blinded by his nicely coiffed hair and pearly whites. Ther are not facing reality. Rudy is too liberal (another RINO) and too much NY baggage we haven't heard about yet.

Our goal is to beat HRC and the dems. Lets nominate someone who is not a liability. Fred is the candidate that can take us all the way.

shelbysbest said...

I couldn't find your email to write you on The Real Sporer blog, but I'm a Fred Thompson supporter who wants you to hear Fred's video message to Iowans:

http://fredfile.fred08.com/blog/2007/video-freds-message-to-iowa-voters/

I hope as a serious voter in Iowa, you will take the time to watch it and hopefully share it with others.

Thank you for your time.

Gene Callahan said...

Paul will finish third, not Thompson or McCain.

Jack in WDM said...

I'm staying with Huck. The misinformation being spread is rather impressive, though, I must admit. I even had a robo-call from some crank, Jim Hendricks of Ar. to advise me of the evils of Huck. The truth is, he cut taxes 98 times...the poorest in his state paid 1% tax and the richest, 7% when he took office; it was the same when he left. A tax increaser? Apparently not. I like the guy and character is a big part of this job...we've been down the other route already and it's not good. Go, Huck!

Anonymous said...

I finally had to rule Rudy out. He's demonstrated that he will conduct an affair while in office using government apparatus to sustain it. been there, done that.

He's close enough to enough dirty people from his mayor days, Bernie Kerik and his mob related taint, that I only see democrat led investigatinos further distracting us from the people's business. Been there, done that.

Hawkeye said...

I was impressed with Huckabee's rhetoric too. I want a president with strong moral values who can keep our nation safe while promoting growth. But Huckabee now appears to be one more in a long line of scandal magnets. The news is full of his unethical conduct as governor. Having a scandal plagued GOP candidate nullifies pointing out Hillary’s unethical conduct during the general campaign. Huckabee has been talking out of one side of his mouth while taking money from tobacco and embryo farm researchers, and he has lied about who his foreign policy advisers are. He pretends to know about world events but his ignorance is shocking. I don’t trust him anymore. All the major GOP conservatives say Gov. Romney is the most competent, experienced, honest, family friendly candidate and I am very impressed with his focus on returning to the faith based values of our founding fathers. I want a president with integrity so I am supporting Mitt Romney.

Anonymous said...

Huck a boom, huck a bam! Nice retort to Romney's attack ad. Just saw the new one. Nice use of time today Gov.

I think I just heard Mitt's glass jaw break.

Prentis Clairmont said...

Huckabee on Meet the Press
Mike Huckabee was amazing this morning on MTP. His answers to Tim Russert's questions this morning proved that ou can be tough, conservative and fair without losing your humanity. Even if you don't agree with him on everything (and I certaily don't), when Huckabee speaks thee is no doubt who is addressing you.

Compare that with Mitt Romney's last performance on MTP (I think it was Dec 16). Russert hammered Romney for over an hour with contradictions beween Romney's positions in the past and his current platform. In some cases these were absolutely blatant turnabouts and caught on VIDEO. At one point Russert exclaims "I mean, people SEE that!"

defeating john mcquisling is priority number one said...

CLW:

RFO has two aims:

1. Install a Muslim as the head of the United States Government and make America a Caliphate.

2. Destroy America from within.

RF said...

Mcquisling,

Really? Sounds like you may be one of those people who also believes 9/11 was an inside job. And maybe you have some UFO stories to share as well?

Anonymous said...

Mcquisling is a closet kucinich supporter.

RF way to lay the smack down.

tbuzz41058 said...

Watch this video, then tell me what you think.

http://fredfile.fred08.com/blog/2007/video-freds-message-to-iowa-voters/

He's not running any negative ads. He just shows you who he is, and what he stands for. He says what he means and means what he says.

ljpitcher said...

Read Ann Marie Curling’s point by point on Mike Huckabee’s “Meet the Press” interview here http://blog.electromneyin2008.com/2007/12/30/research-briefing-gov-mike-huckabee-meet-the-press-fact-check/ and then watch the interview again. You might come away with a different perspective.

Also, for those who haven’t got the joke yet let me remind you that reporters at Huckabee’s own news conference laughed out loud when he said he was going to show them the ad he did not want aired.

Unfortunately a few MSM outlets fell for this hook, line and sinker but it was still a confusing news conference that was an obviously blundered attempt to have the media fight his battle for Huckabee so he could maintain the “nice guy” image he has been working so hard to substantiate for voters.

To see the video of the news conference and for intelligent discussions on how evangelicals can support Mitt Romney go to www.EvangelicalsForMitt.org.

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