Monday, December 10, 2007

Others are now talking about a brokered convention…………but you know you heard it here first.

Not to gloat, but TRS has been talking about a brokered convention for months now. It seems like the story is catching on. This Freddoso article is a more detailed mathematical analysis of the possibility our GOP nominee being chosen at the RNC than we did here at TRS. The conclusion is very much the same-there is a very real possibility that the GOP nominee will be chosen by delegates at the national convention next year.

Rudy’s numbers have slipped since we
first publicly broached the brokered convention, and the remaining candidates have moved around so that Huck looks to be picking up more delegates than he did on November 24, but the basic dynamic hasn’t changed. Rudy gets far more delegates than the next closest candidate but Rudy is still significantly short of a simple majority of the total delegates.

Who says participation isn’t important.

28 comments:

mike huckabee: supernanny said...

I could use this time to criticize Huckabee but I don't want to be called "unchristian."

Hawkeye said...

Iowans enjoy participating because we have great values and make informed decisions. That's why I know Iowans will elect Romney. We're too smart to be fooled by Huckster's slight of tongue. Go Iowa!

Steve Deace said...

Let me get this straight...a Romney guy is accusing someone else of "slight of tongue."

What's next, Bill Clinton calling out someone for marital infidelity? Joel Osteen attacking churches for not preaching the Bible more? Dude, John Kerry called and even he thinks Romney flip-flops too much.

If you think Huckabee isn't hard enough on immigration, fine. If you don't like the fact he raised taxes to pay for infrastructure in Arkansas, fine. If you don't think he has the foreign policy credentials at war time, fine. Those are legitimate criticisms to not support him, I suppose.

But for someone to use those justifications to support Romney is so funny I forgot to laugh.

Does Mitt Romney = A GOP John Kerry? said...

Agreed.

Romney quite frankly has come across as our version of John Kerry...

The similarities are frightening..

They're both from Massachusetts..

They both will tell you whatever it is you want to hear in order to win..

They have flip flopped on so many issues, people have lost count and no one knows what their true position is anymore.....

They'll attack their opponents on issues where they have NO room to talk themselves...

And its still not clear what core values motivate them..

Is that what Iowans want in a candidate?

Do we want a GOP version of John Kerry as our nominee?

Anonymous said...

A brokered convention, yes! After all that wrangling the delegates will see there's only one real
Republican in the race. After all that bullshit, all that nonsense, they'll wise up and throw this thing to Mark Klein like they should have right from the begining.

So hold tight, Mark, even though you'll poll less than 40 votes in New Hampshire, this thing will swing your way at the convention!

HIJK said...

Three Choices:

1) Guiliani- perceivably strong on military (or at least in the right place at the right time.) and perceivably apt on financial issues. But lacks a moral compass in life.

2) Huckabee- strong on the moral agenda. Weak on the financial issues. Ignorant of the military and foreign policy issues.

3) Romney- Strong on moral issues (look at his family, grandkids and personal life- he's got more invested on doing a good job than anybody else). Financially Romney could FIX this country for the better (Olympics, Massachusetts, and Bain). Militarily, Romney would soak in data to always find the best course at any particular moment to Defend America and the Constitution. He's already got ideas with specific details he's been offering.

Hawkeye said...

The DNC has their fingers crossed that Huckabee will get the nomination. “He’ll easily be their McGovern, an easy kill,” mocked one senior Democrat operative Tuesday morning from Washington. “His letting out murderers because they shout ‘Jesus’, his wanting to put 300,000 AIDS patients and Magic Johnson into isolation, ain’t even scratching the surface of what we’ve got on him.” Drudge has the full story. Romney is our conservative values, pro-life candidate who can make it all the way to the White House.

Anonymous said...

This year my school (ASU) decided to pay the tuition for 122 illegal immigrants. For this semester alone it cost nearly 2.25 million dollars. Not only is my school ignoring Arizona law, but my tuition is 7.3 % more this year then last. These 122 illegals are receiving a free-ride on tuition, they are getting free health care, and I am paying for it.
Another problem that is concerning me is social security. My in-laws just filed for their SS, My own parents will file in about 10 more years. I don’t think I need to explain what the current social security crisis is, but I would like to point out that with the way things are going, by the time I am graduated and settled in a job, my paycheck is going to be covering the retired baby-boomers instead of pooling for my own retirement. I will also be paying off the student loans I incurred for my education and the illegals I went to school with.
I am anxious to fix these problems before they get any worse. It seems that Mitt Romney’s business background would give him the advantage in these situations. I have been let down by Huckabee, unfortunately the only real consistent success in his life has been in his Baptist ministry, While im at it, Giuliani is a closet democrat.

Nevadagirl said...

Mike's nice. I can see why he was a successful pastor. But his record as governor scares me a little. According to Justin Hart at mymanmitt.com Mike granted clemency to 9 murderers whose present location is unknown. He granted over 1000 pardons as Governor. This, to me, shows a very poor ability to make sound, objective decisions, and is in complete contrast to Mitt's proven skills in this area. We really need someone who has a record of making smart, fact-based, well-researched decisions. Whatever, you think of Mitt, you can't discount the fact that Mitt has this ability in abundance. I hope Iowans will do their homework on this!

ebadger said...

I think a brokered convention is disaster. Democrats will have settled on a candidate and will be organizing, fund raising and growing their campaign to dominate the general election. Meanwhile we will be bickering among ourselves? The best thing for our party is to get the nomination done and over ASAP and get behind our candidate with everything we've got.

As for Huckabee's authenticity, check out this youtube video I created to express my views:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C9F7ZNRiUzA

RF said...

As a D observer, it's kind of funny to see the Romney camp panic. It's evident in these TRS comment sections as well.

In my view, McCain would probably make the best president of the R crop. Someone I could best live with. But, there appears to be no way he can get the nomination. That said, I will happily take a real social conservative like Huckabee over the fakest-of-the-fake Romney or "I will out-neocon W and am a real prick to boot" Giuliani.

ebadger said...

As a "D" observer, it's easy to understand why you would promote Huckabee.

Look at the drudgereport.com's headline story

"DEMS HOLD FIRE ON HUCKABEE; SEE 'EASY KILL' IN GENERAL ELECTION "

RF said...

I think those match-up polls are meaningless at this point of time, especially for candidates like Huckabee who are not well known. No matter who your nominee is, it looks like it will be an uphill battle for you guys thanks to the debacle known as W presidency.

Anyways, I think Huckabee would be one of your strongest candidates. And I'm not the only D who feels that way. Just ask Desmoinesdem, a reader of this blog and an author on Bleeding Heartland.

The reality is, the R candidate has about a 50/50 chance (maybe a little less because of the aforementioned reason) of winning next year and being my president. Because of that, I would rather have your nominee be someone I could live with rather than someone I think would be easiest for us to beat.

Anonymous said...

All the dem nominee would have to do is ask Huck how old the earth is and what his thoughts are on evolution. Game over.

RF said...

Every potential nominee on both sides of the aisle has some very serious vulnerabilities. With nasty campaigning and outside groups pitching in, you never know what is going to stick and possibly sink somenone's candidacy. The evolution stuff is an obvious vulnerability for Huck, no question about it. But when I've heard him answer questions about it, he has handled the issue pretty well.

ebadger said...

RF, I do not find it surprising that as a liberal democrat that you would prefer Huckabee to the other Republican candidates. Huckabee had proven to be conservative only when it comes to gay marraige and abortion. When it comes to taxes, immigration, crime, Huckabee has been quite liberal.

MARK KLEIN, M.D. said...

Re Anonymous at 10:05:00 AM CST--Well aware the situation. Would have never entered the race if I thought any candidate could get a first ballot victory.

Everything for me depends on a credible showing in New Hampshire. If I demontrate success campaigning the old-fashioned way by meeting voters face to face, the GOP would be fools not to seriously consider me for nomination. If the Democrats deadlocked, I'd take their nomination should the GOP give me the cold shoulder.

Here in New Hampshire people regardless of party like me and my ideas. I am reaching out to Democratic voters by saying in my brochure they can vote for me by registering independent on election day. NH allows election day registration.

I must be doing something right because several of my Manchester signs at key interesections were swiped overnight.

Anonymous said...

I want to focus on the economy. With Iraq cooling down because of all thegood news over there, it will be increasingly important that we have a fiscally strong President - one with a solid grasp of financial issues, markets, and the insight to make informed and intelligent decisions. Not only that, we need someone with the proven history and leadership. That is why I am going to vote for Mitt Romney - I don't care how much snow and ice is on the ground, I'll crawl if I need to, the future of this country is that important - it's not a laughing matter.

mike huckabee: Supernanny said...

The Theory of Huckativity:

Carter + Clinton = Huckabee

Klein is from Mars said...

I also heard somebody's been swiping Klein's signs he left on Mars.

MARK KLEIN, M.D. said...

If leaving signs on Mars worked, better believe they'd be there.

Hope from video surveillance tapes to indentify who's stealing my signs. My complaints blogs about missing brochures at the hotel complex where I and other campaign staffs stay resulted in he front desk returning most late yesterday. The clerk unexpectedly found them in his office.

Very rarely watch television so with one running with sound on in a restaurant got to see a raft of campaign commercials. All total feel good bullshit. If American voters are so easily conned by such claptrap, could well end up back home in California!

Gotta run folks. Hope to hit the road by 6:30. Will check in this evening for the anti-Klein comments. Get a perverse thrill out of looming so large in some peoples's minds(minds--an oxymoron?).

Matt said...

Iowans deserve to lose their first in nation status if they choose Huckabee. He is as liberal as they come except for the social issues. Over 1,000 pardons and commutations? Giving tax-funded scholarships to illegals? Tax/spend, tax/spend --actually he was spend/tax, spend/tax. Not to mention that he is trying to win an election based on his religious credentials. This guy is the biggest joke of a Republican candidate I've ever seen.

Caucus Cooler said...

The brokered convention theory misses what will be the most important part of this process. Momentum. Somebody is going to get enough of a head of steam to bowl through either Feb 5 or the next cluster of states. Highly unlikely that this thing will go on all summer.

The Penis Mighty said...

Klein, you stupid fucking moron, your signs are being removed by municipal employees from Roads and Right of Way. You dumb ass, there are regulations in play where signs can be placed, size, etc. You god damn idiot, even school board candidates know that.

Yet another Klein conspiracy theory based on his own ham handed approach. Klein, you are one Dumb Bastard. All the more reason we elect this fucking asshat, the dumber they are the less likely they are to fuck shit up.

mike huckabee: Supernanny said...

Go ahead and vote for Huckabee, Deace. Do you really want your kid coming home from a government school and telling you that the earth is 6,000 years old?

Anonymous said...

major props to matt! couldn't agree more!

Anonymous said...

Deace doesn't send his kids to "government school". He prefers to "indoctrinate" them in the privacy of his own home. (And heaven forbid they might hear something that pisses off mommy or daddy dearest)

R.L. "Bobby the Sack" Saccamano said...

Klein, this is the best one yet! So as per that earlier post, your signs are being pulled up by City Workers because your dumb ass is placing them in illegal areas? You ignorant boob you don't have the first clue do you? Everybody has to live with the ordinances regarding size and placement of political signs but you, correct? Tell the truth, you planned this whole thing didn't you? You put the signs out knowing full well they'd get jerked by the city and then you could trump up another conspiracy theory where Huckabee, McCain, Clinton, et. al. have this underground network in place to sabotage your campaign. Ye gads, Man! This shit of yours gets funnier every day. So tell us, which Super Hero on staff is it that you have hiding in the bushes with night vision goggles watching your signs? Batman? Spiderman? Klein, I swear if you weren't such a creep, this thing would be pathetic to the point of pity for you.

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