Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Fred’s out. Whither Florida?

Fred Thompson made it official today; he’s out of the Presidential race. TRS must confess some disappointment with the Thompson campaign.

TRS, like most other Republicans, was looking for the “perfect” candidate last summer. FDT seemed to fit the bill. My confidence was first shaken when Fred failed to jump in right before the Straw Poll, when all of the money and national attention gave him tremendous momentum. Attending the Straw Poll, where the national wind and latest flavor of the month at Baskin & Robbins circumstance of the race last summer gave him a great chance of winning, or placing second at least, was a huge missed opportunity. Such a finish would have been almost dispositive of the race. The slow cautious approach was to defer to conventional wisdom, wait and build a staff, etc…. However, greatness takes chances.

Since the risk of losing the Straw Poll was slight, with a built in excuse nonetheless, following conventional wisdom proved a huge mistake. Fred’s campaign never seemed to catch fire, perhaps because the candidate himself simply seemed unenthusiastic.

On balance, most FDT voters will run to Huck. Huck seems far more like the average Fred supporter. However, with Huck’s withdrawal from Florida requires a big day in the South for Huck on February 5. While securing 80-90% of the Thompson support in Florida would probably push Huck into first, such a concentration is unlikely.

If the Thompson 10% spilts evenly between Mitt and Mac then Thompson’s campaign most significant moment was its depravation of a Huckabee victory in South Carolina. The Florida post South Carolina/Nevada polls remain virtually tied. The average of the
latest Florida polls shows McCain at 22.5%; Mitt at 22%; and Rudy at 19.5%. In short, the Florida race will probably be unaffected by Fred’s departure.

Fred served the Party and the Country well for many years. It might be too bad for the Country that Fred wasn’t more ambitious.

17 comments:

o...m...g...! absolute power corrupts absolutely. this should scare even democrats said...

Monday, January 21, 2008 6:59 PM

ATLANTA -- Bill Clinton doesn't want to become the White House's Sasquatch.

The former president says it would be a mistake for him to have a specific job if he were to return to Washington with a new Clinton administration.

"I'd be like the abominable snowman," Clinton told reporters Monday. "I'd be Bigfooting everybody even if I tried not to. There's almost no way you can avoid that."

Clinton said his best use on behalf of his wife, Democratic candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton, were she president, would be "to try to help her talk through all these problems and then to be available for very specific assignments that would not in any way undermine the authority of the vice president or the secretary of state."

Jack in WDM said...

...anybody still think Obama will be up for being Hillary's step and fetchit VP? After hearing that interesting quote by Billsy?

Art A Layman said...

sporie:

TRS must confess some disappointment with the Thompson campaign.

That statement is almost as wishy-washy as the whole Thompson campaign.

One has to wonder what, for you, might cause extreme disappointment.

From some of your posts on Robert Reich's blog, you don't even appear slightly miffed about Dubya's performance.

One can applaud your "glass half full" attitude but with the lame group you guys are stuck with one might think, as a party spokeman, a little passion would be in order.

Ken Hoyle said...

Fred served the party and the Country well? In the line of "what have you done for me lately" I would beg the question, what has this two bit hack, this washed up old actor, this ego-maniacal bastard ever done for anybody other than himself? I couldn't be any more thrilled that we kicked this idiot to the curb. What a slob, who needs him? Romney is the only answer.

Art A Layman said...

ken hoyle:

In the vernacular of the old Carnac character; Romney may be the answer, but to what question and it ain't who best to be the President.

Ken Hoyle said...

Art A Lay, First off I don't believe (as others in here do) that you are the reincarnation of Mark Klein. If, however, you are, then may I just say, "Fuck you!". If not, then I say Romney is the answer because Huckabee is a damn fool and the last thing we need is some idiot sitting around the Oval Office trying to find a biblical reference for everything. McCain? I like John McCain, I really do. But, and there's always a but, ask anybody who supports him, "Why", and there's absolutely no substance beyond his Military Service. I know, like, and admire plenty of Veterans. They are damned capable folks the lot of them, too. But there ain't a President amongst them, I'll tell you that. Again, I feel the same way about McCain. Alas, that leaves us with Romney. Plus, his wife's got a nice rack and there's nobody else out there that would kiss Wall Street's collective ass like that joker could.

Anonymous said...

Ken,

Please pull your head out of your ass. Romney is nothing more than a spoiled, rich kid, New England society legacy baby treating the Presidency like a prize to be won at his local yacht club raffle. The only question to which Romney is the answer to is: Who is the biggest douche-bag left in the race? The departure of Fred Thompson, leaves Romney holding that mantle.

Further Ken, I’m perplexed as to why you of all people dislike Fred Thompson. Fred was the only reason why Huckabee didn’t take South Carolina by a wide margin. Had that happened, Romney’s pathetic (well, I cant win in a good state so I’ll take a bull shit win in a state no one cares about) strategy would have petered out and Huckbee would be the runaway frontrunner in Florida. Hell, he may still fire off a silver bullet and win a close victory in Florida. Remember, it’s a closed Primary and 30% of Primary voters are evangelicals. If turnout is low, Huckabee could experience a resurrection in the Sunshine state.

Regardless of how Huckabee does, it doesn’t change the fact that Romney is probably the worst GOP option in 2008 and would almost certainly experience the biggest loss by a major party candidate in a general election since George McGovern.

Hunter Endorses Huckabee... said...

Well..this certainly is a blow to McCain and Romney..

Duncan Hunter this afternoon has come out and endorsed Mike Huckabee...

Hunter stated

"Of the remaining candidates I feel that he is strongly committed to strengthening national defense, constructing the border fence and meeting the challenge of China’s emergence as a military superpower that is taking large portions of America’s industrial base.

"Along with these issues of national security, border enforcement and protecting the U.S. industrial base, I see another quality of Mike Huckabee’s candidacy that compels my endorsement,he added, "Mike Huckabee is a man of outstanding character and integrity. I saw that character over the last year of campaigning and was greatly impressed


So..what's Limbaugh, Hannity, Levin, and Coulter to say now?

Art A Layman said...

ken hoyle:

You win the prize! I am not in anyway related to Mark Klein.

In your analysis, a logical schema I could hardly argue with, until the end, you have left out Hillary, Obama, Edwards.

Now I realize this is not the bent of most posting here but any of the Dems would be far better than a Romney.

Art A Layman said...

hunter.......:

Duncan Hunter's endorsement? That and a buck wouldn't buy even you a cup of coffee. Might be a small step up from Chuck Norris.

Cedar Waxwing said...

Art..

Wrong.. It adds even more credibility to Huckabee's conservative credentials...

Hunter isnt a guy that will sell out for political expediency...and he calls em like he sees them..

If Hunter was all worried about a Cabinet appointment..or a VP shot even..do you really think he'd have endorsed Huckabee over anyone else?

Ken Hoyle said...

Anonymous said: "Ken, Please pull your head out of your ass. Romney is nothing more than a spoiled, rich kid, New England society legacy":

Sure thing you fink, Romney is the Kennedy you crave since this bullshit Bush dynasty did'nt work out. Oh how you love this AWOL Alabama Air National Guardsman (Tesas Division), drunk, coke sniffing bum, whose wife killed a guy in a DWI accident, drunken daughters who will fuck anything, piece of shit. Oh yeah, asshole, tell me I'm out of line you piece of shit. Level some crap against Chelsea, say she's ugly or something you fuck, you fuck. Suck my ass and stick to the issues. Guess that's impossible you piece of shit. Fuck the issues at stack, make fun of a Presidential Candidates family. Worthless fucks, the lot of you. Jesus, Ted, do something.

Best wishes,

Ken Hoyle

R.L. Saccamano said...

Wow, Ken, that's a pretty wild diatribe. Have to admit I agree to some extent. Bush One and Bush Two have wrecked the party. Like Reagan said, The Bush bullshit is Voo Doo economics. Then we get the son of the bitch George Double U, who single handled wrecks this shit, he had surplus for Christ (Huckabee) sake when he came into this game. Goddamn idiot. He has fucked us over two fold. I agree with Ken, get the party back on track. Romney, period. Romney.

Anonymous said...

Not sure what poll you have shoved up your ass there Art, but Duncan Hunter is one of the most respected Conservatives in the field today.

His problem? He never really campaigned. Hunter could have easily competed had he been willing, as McCain, Paul, Brownback and Tancrado are and were to neglect their obligations to the taxpayers of the United States to run for a different job. Hunter didn’t and his campaign paid a price but that isn’t a reason to insult him.

Stop being such a tool.

Art A Layman said...

My, my! One might suggest that this blog won't make the "Intellectual Blog of the Year" list.

We even have poor ken requesting sexual favors of a homosexual nature.

Then, in typical Larry Craig fashion, we have "anonymous", suggesting that there are available dildos made from polls. Come to think of it that may be the best use of the polls, they appear to worthless for anything else.

Duncan Hunter is one of the most respected Conservatives in the field today.

Most of your, shall we say, Bush league candidates would be highy respected as well if the public knew as little about them as they do Hunter.

He didn't campaign because he didn't have money. He was a nonstarter from the get-go.

It is good that he dropped out. In this square dance you guys got going on he just might have do-si-doed his way to the top and that could have been catastrophic.

cedar:

I didn't suggest that Hunter endorsed Huckabee in a quest for a cabinet post or VP slot.

My suggestion was, that based on the primaries to date, a gentlemen who at best has gotten 1% of the votes in one or two states doesn't carry a lot of clout.

Enjoy the debate tonight all.

Art A Layman said...

By the way, just a thought, it is extremely sophomoric to be making very disparaging remarks about politicians families.

Trash the players all you want using your simplified, 4 letter word dictionaries, but the family members are stuck in this limelight and don't deserve all the trashing.

Besides this mindless ranting just feeds the premise that conservatives have nothing worthwhile to posit. Alas, mostly true.

Cedar Waxwing said...

Art..

Hunter didn't campaign as much as he could have because of two issues..

1. Unlike people like Paul, Tancredo and Brownback..he didn't essentially abandon his duties as a US House of Reps member...

2. Duncan Hunter himself has never been one who's surrounded himself with professional handlers and strategists. He's old school grassroots politics through and through...

Personally, I think Hunter used running for President to put him on the radar for a potential SecDef position in a future GOP administration..

Quite frankly Art..what could that 1-2% support that Hunter's been pulling done for someone like Huckabee in SC? I don't think there's any doubt that there are a good number Thompson and Hunter supporters will now get behind Huckabee...if that had happened in SC..Huckabee wins easily there..

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