Wednesday, January 23, 2008

Hunter, Huck and Mitt draws Florida even closer.

Duncan Hunter endorsed Mike Huckabee today. Some pundits treat the endorsement as de minimis because Duncan doesn’t bring a ton of his own voters to the table. However, there is a hidden value-Hunter’s incredible value as a surrogate.

Most Republicans felt that Hunter’s foreign policy and geostrategic vision are spot on but never seriously considered his candidacy because of name ID or political electability. Hunter helps Huck complete a blank in the resume.

Real Clear average now shows Florida to be growing even closer. Every sample is now post South Carolina but almost all sample FDT support, a statistic of little relevance. The exact numbers are somewhat difficult to determine but McCain at 22.6% and Mitt at 22.3% is pretty much tie, and Rudy is still only 3.3 back at 19%.

TRS informants in Florida also claim that both Huckabee and Giuliani are being under reported in the polls. The sources are somewhat biased, however so we’ll have to see. My most unbiased of sources say that both McCain and Huckabee are stronger in Florida than the polls show.

The compilation of anecdotal and statistical evidence produces just one conclusion about Florida-way to close to call. The most likely result, dispersion of the delegates among four campaigns, a little momentum for the winner and on to Super Tuesday.

1 comment:

Cedar Waxwing said...

These polls leave out a major component in Florida..

Early voting has been going on in Florida for I believe nearly a month now...

While the polls might be indicative of what's going on now...they dont' take into account the past..

Both Huckabee and Giuliani were very recently leading out there...and Giuliani of course has been basing himself out of Florida for some time, so his operatives might have already generated a good early vote turnout for him...Huckabee could also be helped by early voting as well.

The debate tonight will solidify things in Florida for one of the candidate..

Now that Thompson is out of the mix as well as Hunter..the debate tonight will be a "Fatal Four Way"--with McCain, Giuliani, Romney and Huckabee..

Look for McCain to attack Giuliani on his pro-abortion, pro gay rights stands..

Look for Romney to hit McCain on amnesty..

Look for Giuliani to hit Romney on the "experience" issue and McCain on not voting for the Bush tax cuts..

Look for Huckabee to hit Romney on his flip flops, Giuliani on the abortion issue..and McCain on not doing enough to control spending in Congress.