Wednesday, January 09, 2008

New Hampshire (or TRS might just be right again).

Well, one amazing comeback by Johnny Mac. Simply amazing. McCain is proving that the American voter can find a complete lack of charm irresistibly charming. TRS wasn’t right about this one and I am man enough to admit my error.

Mitt and Rudy have each, in a different way, made a great point; the race is basically still tied. While pundits like TRS bloviate, reality just trudges on in its inscrutable manner. One must never forget that the nomination will be won by the candidate that has a majority of delegates at the Republican National Convention next August 30 or so.

Mitt’s right, he has the most delegates. Sure, although finishing second both times, losing New Hampshire and Iowa-key Mitt marches and the two more celebrated contests -hurts but it is far from fatal. Rudy’s also right; if he wins Florida, or places well there he will have plenty of money for February 5 and can earn huge delegate totals on Super-duper Tuesday in places like New York and California. Although Fred needs to probably hit a good triple in South Carolina Huck and Johnny Mac are clearly going to be around and winning a pretty good number of delegates on February 5 as well.

In the midst of all the chatter it is important to remember that polls, exit or otherwise won’t determine the nominations, neither do predictions nor expectations. Only committed delegates will make the call. If no one has a majority after February 5 what incentive does anyone have to get out? Every delegate becomes a poker chip at a high stakes game of
Minneapolis Hold ‘em.


Anonymous said...



Anonymous said...

Its true, this could be a long nomination process ... unless ... With Romney bleeding, Rudy stalled in the early states and McCain just now resurected there is a chance that Huckabee could clench this process on January 15th in Michigan.

Huck is already way ahead in South Carolina and he's in position to play for #1 in Florida and the South on February 5th. If Huckabee can upend Romney in Michigan, this race is over. Huckabee will go into Florida with overwhelming momentum with victories in Iowa, Michigan and South Carolina. No other campaign will have big mo like that and Mitt will be dead if the family stronghold in Michigan falls.

Huck is further helpped in Michigan by the resergence of John McCain. If Huck grabs the monoply on values voters there and Romney and McCain split the rest of the general GOP vote, Huck may be able to wedge a pluraity and take Michigan.

Its an outside chance that Huck can knock Romney off in Michigan but hes in the Wolverine state to play and he surely knows the spoils should he get lucky and pull off an upset.

Cedar Waxwing said...

Mitt pulling out his ads in SC and Florida is a significant sign that he knows that he's in a deep hole..and he's got to win a high profile state's betting on his home state.

If Mitt doesnt place first in MI..and win by a significant amount...he's done...pure and simple..doesnt matter how much money he's got...he'll be written off as a guy who "can't win the big one"....

Mitt placed all his marbles into the Iowa/NH strategy..much like Kerry did in 04 on the Dem side...

It worked for Kerry..however...Mitt's finding out that not just as destructive...

Anonymous said...

19 votes.

Mark Klein, M. fckng D. polled 19 votes in New Hampshire!
He owns our ass Ted! He owns our ass!

Anonymous said...

Here it is, all 301 Counties reporting:

John McCain
GOP 88,466 37% 7
Mitt Romney GOP 75,343 32% 4
Mike Huckabee GOP 26,768 11% 1
Rudy Giuliani GOP 20,395 9% 0
Ron Paul GOP 18,303 8% 0
Fred Thompson GOP 2,886 1% 0
Duncan Hunter GOP 1,220 1% 0
Alan Keyes GOP 220 0% 0
Stephen Marchuk GOP 120 0% 0
Jack Shepard GOP 75 0% 0
Tom Tancredo GOP 68 0% 0
Hugh Cort GOP 43 0% 0
Albert Howard GOP 43 0% 0
Cornelius O'Connor GOP 41 0% 0
Vermin Supreme GOP 41 0% 0
John Cox GOP 40 0% 0
Vern Wuensche GOP 39 0% 0
Daniel Gilbert GOP 33 0% 0
James Mitchell GOP 30 0% 0
Mark Klein GOP 19 0% 0
Neil Fendig GOP 13 0% 0
Write-ins GOP 4,908 2% 0

There you have it folks, 19 votes out of the 239,114 cast. 19 votes. The countless hours spent, the "thousands" of brochures handed out day and night. 19 votes.


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