Wednesday, November 21, 2007

Another day, another poll and more good news for Huck

It looks like another, even more recent poll, has been released and shows former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee narrowly, within the margin of error, trails former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. As TRS has previously reported, it appears that Huck has a ton of momentum heading into the home stretch. TRS has encountered growing enthusiasm for Huck at almost every Republican event or meeting we attend. However, the Huckabee trajectory faces certain limitations and challenges that should not be ignored in a wave of irrational exuberance.

Mitt Romney remains solidly at 25-30%, the same range in which he has operated for months, and still in first place. There don’t appear to be any signs that either Mitt’s support or his place in the horse race are changing or are going to change. I still have yet to speak to a “Romney deserter” so it is hard to find evidence of any attrition in Romney’s support. If Mitt's support remains solid then Huck faces a ceiling of similar numbers, although TRS thinks such a finish would put a big watermelon eating grin on Huck's face.

Fred Thompson only recently began running ads in Iowa and the affect of those ads are not yet reflected in the polls-there just hasn’t been time for the message to penetrate the market, so to speak. Huck could lose some support to FDT’s “consistent conservative” message if voters like Huck but question his electability. FDT also has a very good team here in central Iowa. Kristen Fuzer, who is rapidly becoming one of Iowa’s best grass roots organizers, which proves that good guys do get ahead sometimes, has a great list of statewide volunteers that provide FDT with a good basis of support at the Caucuses. FDT could exploit that list and move his Iowa numbers with an aggressive campaign of personal appearances.

TRS is told that Rudy is now running radio ads in Iowa, although TRS hasn’t personally heard them. Rudy also could blitz the state in the final couple of weeks and change the race significantly, if he is willing to do so. The Giuliani star quality is palpable when Rudy makes a physical appearance and this campaign tactic could make a difference of great significance. Rudy in the one Republican who could be a wild card; he is the Republican most likely to bring a large number of new Republican Caucus participants.

Finally, Ron Paul is advertising like crazy. TRS thinks this probably will not make any significant difference in Paul‘s support. However, if Paul can push his numbers up to say, eight percent, and John McCain holds steady at around the same six-eight percent, the other big Iowa four are going to have to split the remaining roughly 85%. Since neither Rudy nor FDT is going to slide into single digits (at least highly unlikely as of Thanksgiving) its hard to see how anyone can blow out a Caucus victory.

It looks like a razor close finish is in the offing for the Hawkeye Caucuses.

33 comments:

mitt's caucus mastercard moment said...

Switching your positions on every issue important to Caucus goers, not that hard.

Cost of your own money to to tell Iowans that your position changes are genuine - millions of dollars.

Nearly getting beat by a campaign that is spending a small fraction of the frontrunner - priceless.

You can fool a lot of people, but you can't fool everyone. Thankfully, we are Iowans, we know what bullshit smells like.

MARK KLEIN, M.D. said...

Planet Earth Calling. Anybody home?

Ordinary folks facing foreclosure, crushing educational debt, and the buying power of their savings depleted by the dollar in a free fall want to hear about policies to help them.

If the Republican Party doesn't start behaving like real Republicans, almost a certainty the electorate will chose statism under the Democrats rather than the current socialism for the rich and free enterprise for everyone else.

huck says moral issues like killing babies can't be states rights, just like slavery couldn't be said...

Speaking of Mitt. Have you heard his commentary just prior to the Straw Poll about being in favor of the Human Life amendment, but just a couple of weeks after that, his commentary was that it was a matter of states rights.

Now, that's a complete difference of opionion in a matter of a few weeks. This is not a journey that evolved over time.

You either are FOR the Human Life amendment or you are FOR states rights. YOu can't be for BOTH things at the same time.

Which is it Mitt?

BOSTON, August 16, 2007 (LifeSiteNews.com) - Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney has thrown his endorsement behind a human life amendment, an important clarification of the presidential hopeful's pro-life position as he bids for the Republican nomination.

Romney made the choice to abandon his earlier rejection of the human life amendment as he poured money and energy into winning the Ames caucus in Iowa, where Republican voters run strongly social conservative.

THEN: he said this:

However the Associated Press reports that Romney later qualified his support for a human life amendment. According to the AP, Romney said his advisor Bopp had told him "there are a wide range of possible human life amendments" ranging from a total ban on abortion to an amendment that let states make the decision. On top of that, getting both houses of Congress and 38 out of 50 states to support a constitutional amendment, Bopp told him, "is just not realistic."

Romney said he prefers a strategy of appointing strict constitutionalist judges, who might overturn Roe v. Wade, and allow the states to decide their policy regarding abortion.

Anonymous said...

Hounded by the abortion question, Romney recently told reporters: "I'm pro-life; it would be great if we could just leave it at that."

Update: The Netherlands almost lost their country due to social liberal experiments gone bad said...

Change the world Netherlands to the United States and Dutch to American and it's the same story. We must learn from their failed social experiment. Multiculturalism led to the downfall of the Roman Empire, it's defeating Europe and The United States is next if the Democrats have their way.
---------

Netherlands Not So Dutch Anymore

By MIKE CORDER,Associated Press Writer AP - Thursday, November 22

THE HAGUE, Netherlands -

...Princess Maxima's comments have tapped into an unsettled feeling among many Dutch who fear traditional values have been eroded in a country roiled by a rise in Muslim extremism.

Conservatives in this nation of 16 million say the long Dutch tradition of welcoming immigrants and putting little or no pressure on them to integrate undermines Western values.

"Unfortunately, the debate about Dutch identity is too often held at a very trite and trivial level _ as if the discussion is between Brussels sprouts and wooden shoes on the one hand, and couscous and caftans on the other," said Bart Jan Spruyt, founder of The Edmund Burke Foundation, a conservative think tank.

"What is really at stake, due to a frivolous immigration policies and decades of multicultural indifference, is the identity of the Dutch nation, Dutch history and culture as a part of the history of Western civilization."

"Our migration policy is a failure," she told The Associated Press in an interview last year. "We used to pretend that we were a homogenous little country and that Holland is not a migration country.

We have become a migration country like the United States."

Since the Van Gogh slaying, the conservative government has reversed course on multiculturalism, passing a raft of laws that emphasize integration over cultural tolerance _ most notably forcing foreigners to take citizenship courses and learn Dutch.

gee hillary, sounds like you are mudslinging, as you define it. do just girls get to do that? said...

November 20, 2007
BY ASSOCIATED PRESS

SHENANDOAH, Iowa — Hillary Rodham Clinton ridiculed Democratic rival Barack Obama on Tuesday for his contention that living in a foreign country as a child helped give him a better understanding of the foreign policy challenges facing the U.S.

‘‘Voters will have to judge if living in a foreign country at the age of 10 prepares one to face the big, complex international challenges the next president will face,’’ Clinton said. ‘‘I think we need a president with more experience than that, someone the rest of the world knows, looks up to and has confidence in.’’

Anonymous said...

Hillary - sorry to burst your bubble, but we don't look up to you and we have no confidence in you.

The rest of the world knows you but just for your infamous husband and his naughty deeds and the fact that you are a Stand By Your Man Tammy Wynnette sort of gal who's good in the kitchen baking cookies.

the huckster said...

While Gov. of Arkansas, Huckabee was AGAINST proving citizenship in order to register to vote. He called those who were in favor of this “racists”...

http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20050218/news_lz1e18perkins.html

Huckabee fought hard to kill an Arkansas bill which would have cut off social services for illegal aliens. Huckabee called the bill, “anti-Christian” and “un-American”...

http://www.arkansasnews.com/archive/2005/01/28/News/316347.html

Huckabee supported in-state tuition for illegal aliens...

http://www.arkansasnews.com/archive/2005/03/11/News/318458.html

Huckabee’s opposition to the illegal aliens bill:

http://www.diggersrealm.com/mt/archives/000718.html

R's are more savvy about your criminal tactics too. you are not the most electable because of that said...

She sought to compare her experience — a two-term New York senator after eight years as first lady — with that of Obama, a first-term senator from Illinois.

‘‘I offer the experience of being battle-tested in the political wars here at home,’’ said Clinton, arguing that her background not only was superior as a potential president but also made her the most electable Democrat.

‘‘For 15 years I’ve been the object of the Republican attack machine and I’m still here,’’ she said.

tax hike mike said...

Tax Hike Mike has raised the following taxes:

Sales Tax, 1996 (Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, 11/07/96)

Gas and Diesel Fuel Taxes, 1999 (Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, 04/02/99, 04/25/99)

Sales Tax, 2000 (Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, 09/25/02)

Cigarette Tax, 2001 (Associated Press, 04/02/01)

Nursing Home Bed Tax, 2001 (Associated Press, 06/25/01)

Sales Tax, 2002 (Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, 11/15/02)

Income Surcharge Tax, 2003 (Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, 10/09/07)

Tobacco Tax, 2003 (Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, 10/09/07)

Internet Taxes, 2004 (Bond Buyer, 02/24/04)

she's the inventer of the politics of personal destruction & the vast right wing conspiracy said...

‘‘For 15 years I’ve been the object of the Republican attack machine and I’m still here,’’ she said.

Anonymous said...

But, how does Huck feel about the Fair Tax amendment and the Human Life amendment?

Where does Mitt stand on those?

Where does McCain stand on those?

Where does Rudy stand on those?

Where does Fred stand on those?

Anonymous said...

Mitt is against the Fair Tax AND the Human Life amendment.

Those issues are much bigger than any tax issue he had to deal with in Arkansas.

The Club for Growth is not going to dissuade folks from Huck over taxes when he is superior to them all on the issues of far greater importance in that of the Fair Tax and the Human Life amendment.

This is why HUCK Is SURGING and Mitt is SLIDING.

Huck hasn't evolved. He's been keepin it real all along.

holy nanny state, batman said...

Immediately upon taking office, Governor Huckabee signed a sales tax hike in 1996 to fund the Games and Fishing Commission and the Department of Parks and Tourism (Cato Policy Analysis No. 315, 09/03/98).

He supported an internet sales tax in 2001 (Americans for Tax Reform 01/07/07).

He publicly opposed the repeal of a sales tax on groceries and medicine in 2002 (Arkansas News Bureau 08/30/02).

He signed bills raising taxes on gasoline (1999), cigarettes (2003) (Americans for Tax Reform 01/07/07), and a $5.25 per day bed-tax on private nursing home patients in 2001 (Arkansas New Bureau 03/01/01).

He proposed another sales take hike in 2002 to fund education improvements (Arkansas News Bureau 12/05/02).

He opposed a congressional measure to ban internet taxes in 2003 (Arkansas News Bureau 11/21/03).

In 2004, he allowed a 17% sales tax increase to become law (The Gurdon Times 03/02/04).

By the end of his ten-year tenure, Governor Huckabee was responsible for a 37% higher sales tax in Arkansas, 16% higher motor fuel taxes, and 103% higher cigarette taxes according to Americans for Tax Reform (01/07/07), garnering a lifetime grade of D from the free-market Cato Institute. During Huckabee’s tenure as governor, the average Arkansan’s tax burden increased 47 percent, according to the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette.

While he is on record supporting making the Bush tax cuts permanent, he joined Democrats in criticizing the Republican Party for tilting its tax policies “toward the people at the top end of the economic scale” (Washington Examiner 09/13/06), even though objective evidence demonstrates that the Bush tax cuts have actually shifted the tax burden to higher income taxpayers.

Finally, Governor Huckabee opposed further tax cuts at a 2005 gathering of Iowa conservatives (AP 09/17/05). On January 28, 2007, Governor Huckabee refused to pledge not to raise taxes if elected President, first on Meet the Press and then at the National Review Conservative Summit. The evidence suggests that his commitment to protecting taxpayers evidenced in his early gubernatorial years may be a thing of the past.

Anonymous said...

so who do you support then? To whose benefit does your criticism accrue?

obama's right. hill's econ policy is to "take things away from you for the greater good" said...

Maureen Dowd has another GREAT Column on ShillChill today over at the NY Times.

....At a news conference, the Illinois senator was asked about Hillary Clinton’s attack on his qualifications.

Making an economic speech in Knoxville, Iowa, earlier that day, the New York senator had touted her own know-how, saying that “there is one job we can’t afford on-the-job training for — that’s the job of our next president.” Her aides confirmed that she was referring to Obama.

Pressed to respond, Obama offered a zinger feathered with amused disdain: “My understanding was that she wasn’t Treasury secretary in the Clinton administration, so I don’t know exactly what experiences she’s claiming.”

Everybody laughed, including Obama.

the biggest lie of all is hillary thinking she's a feminist said...

More from Maureen:

"Obama’s one-liner evoked something that rubs some people the wrong way about Hillary.

Getting ahead through connections is common in life. But Hillary cloaks her nepotism in feminism.

“She hasn’t accomplished anything on her own since getting admitted to Yale Law,” wrote Joan Di Cola, a Boston lawyer, in a letter to The Wall Street Journal this week, adding: “She isn’t Dianne Feinstein, who spent years as mayor of San Francisco before becoming a senator, or Nancy Pelosi, who became Madam Speaker on the strength of her political abilities.

All Hillary is, is Mrs. Clinton.

She became a partner at the Rose Law Firm because of that, senator of New York because of that, and (heaven help us) she could become president because of that.”

where's the beef? Where's the foreign policy experience? said...

With all due respect,” she (Chillary) told a crowd in Iowa. “I don’t think living in a foreign country between the ages of 6 and 10 is foreign policy experience.”

But, (Maureen asks) is living in the White House between the ages of 45 and 53 foreign policy experience?

what's up with the bushies trying to get the clintons elected co-president again? how cozy said...

President Bush is not so enamored of Obama’s foreign policy judgment. He gave a plug to Hillary on ABC News last night, calling her a “formidable candidate,” even under pressure, who “understands the klieg lights.”

Laura Bush also gave Hillary a sisterly — and dynastic — plug when she told the anchor that living in the White House and meeting people everywhere would be “very helpful” to a first lady trading up.

bill - i need more private detectives and more staff and well....more of you too. they want you! said...

The Clinton campaign in Iowa is in a panic. Obama has been closing the gap with women and her ginning up of gender has lost her male votes.

do you suppose Hill wants to give vilsnake his soul back? she's not getting much out of that deal said...

She went on some first lady jaunts and made a good speech at a U.N. women’s conference in Beijing.

But she was certainly not, as her top Iowa supporter, former governor Tom Vilsack claimed yesterday on MSNBC, “the face of the administration in foreign affairs.”

but carville is busy at CNN and George is busy at ABC, claiming to be journalists now said...

She was a top adviser who had a Nixonian bent for secrecy and a knack for hard-core politicking.

But if running a great war room qualified you for president, Carville and Stephanopoulos would be leading the pack.

Robert L. "Bobby the Sack" Saccamano said...

These polls are all bullshit and you know it, Ted! It's shameful the way you are in on the fix to suppress the real front-runner in this race, Mark Klein, M. fucking D. for Christ's sake. Evewrybody is talking about this shit heel as the only viable alternative we have. Get on board the Klein train now, come on board for the big win. Mark fucking Klein, baby. The Man!

Gee...no wonder they are pissed. I didn't realize how FEW people read the NY Times. said...

The New York Times' daily circulation was down another 4.51 percent to about a million readers a day.

The paper's Sunday circulation was down 7.59 percent to about 1.5 million readers.

Meanwhile, the Drudge Report has more than 16 million readers every day.

O'Reilly, on Fox gets 2.6 million a day.

Rush gets over 4 million a day.

Hannity gets 2 million a day at night.

The Ghost of Gerald Ford said...

The drudge report high numbers, O' reily's/ Hannitys numbers and Rush listeners numbers are based on the fact that their devotees are too damn dumb to form their own opinion by reading factual news sources but rely on the ravings of a closeted gay(drudge), a sexual harrasser( O reily) and a drug addict (Rush). back in the old days Illiterate GOPer farmers used to get all their news from The weekly Grit which like Fox news was designed to be understood by the dimwiited. GOpers never could recognize anything of quality.
As for Mitt And Reverend Huckleberry, I find it hilarious how their commercials are stressing strong families. it is easy raising five kids when you were left with a trust fund. How concerned was Mitt when he eliminated all those jobs of working stiffs in his career as a corporate raider? When will GOPers realize that most people want the politicians to stay out of their private lives Right Senator Vitter/ Right Senator Craig?

Happy Thanksgiving all you GOP turkeys. I can't wait until next thanksgiving to celebrate Your slaughter!

Love how Scott McClellan has called the entire administration liars gee I thought they had integrity? It used to when there were moderates in the Party. Barry Goldwater hangs his head in grief to see how you wrecked the Republican party

Anonymous said...

SO, ghost of a soul,

How do you form your opinions? What is your source? Who do you read?

Oh yea, you guys have Jon Stewart. The democrats most used source for news.

Geez.

The Real Sporer said...

Ghost,

Perhaps you'd better read the newer news, Scott McClellan and his publisher are back peddling like Cyclone defenders on first down. It appears the book actually only substantiates that Richard Armitage lied to everybody.

But, hey, when did Dems or their MSM running dogs let something liket the words actually used intefere with a good hit on the Rs, now that things are going better in Iraq.

Anonymous said...

Ghost, Sporer, Anonymous:

Mark Klein owns all of your asses and you are too stupid to see it. Mark Klein is our saviour! The only way out!

Anonymous said...

Ghost, Sporer, Anonymous:

Mark Klein owns all of your asses and you are too stupid to see it. Mark Klein is our saviour! The only way out!

Anonymous said...

Fuck the Republican Party....it's Mark Klein Nation or nothin'!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

R.L. "Bobby the Sack" Saccamano said...

Agreed, any poll that doesn't have Mark, M. fucking D., Klein at the top of it is a bullshit, Des Moines on the Kremlin, attempt to supress this new prophet!

Anonymous said...

Mike Huckabee disses Americans, Mexicans, promotes illegal immigration: http://lonewacko.com/blog/archives/005609.html

Christians Need To Beware Of Mike Huckabee:
http://www.chuckbaldwinlive.com/c2007/cbarchive_20071102.html

While Gov. of Arkansas, Huckabee was AGAINST proving citizenship in order to register to vote. He called those who were in favor of this “racists”...
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20050218/news_lz1e18perkins.html

Huckabee fought hard to kill an Arkansas bill which would have cut off social services for illegal aliens. Huckabee called the bill, “anti-Christian” and “un-American”...
http://www.arkansasnews.com/archive/2005/01/28/News/316347.html

Huckabee supported in-state tuition for illegal aliens...
http://www.arkansasnews.com/archive/2005/03/11/News/318458.html

Huckabee’s opposition to the illegal aliens bill:
http://www.diggersrealm.com/mt/archives/000718.html

Anonymous said...

Huckabee is liberal on everything but abortion and guns. Plus, a vote for him is a vote for Giuliani (because it hurts the only true conservative in the race, Mitt Romney). But since Giuliani is liberal (and devastatingly so) in the only places that Huckabee is conservative, they essentially cancel each other out. So, if you want a social liberal with a mean streak who is a poor leader and promotes his felonious cronies as your president (aka Rudy Giuliani), then go ahead a vote for Huckabee...

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