Friday, January 04, 2008

Caucus 08-quick takes on the Huckaboom.

Its really late and the Caucus is over. All 183 Polk precincts are reported and recorded. TRS is finally here at home and watching the coverage reruns. Here are a few reflections on the night that was:

First, thanks to Emma, Sarah, Sarah, Tim and the whole Polk County crew. These kids did a great job in a short time. We covered all 183 precincts, right down to the precincts that don’t really contain Republicans. Great job. Thank you.

Second, thanks to the people of Polk County and Iowa. Even the Ds get a little love right here. Both parties blew away attendance records. Our Polk turnout was huge. The attendance numbers certainly show that Iowan are engaged as well as informed.
Third, the national template on Huck’s win is simply strange. I’m listening to Iowa being now depicted as a kind of monolithic state in which all of the Republicans are evangelical Christians and that those of a different persuasion are somehow suppressed. There’s a word for that bovine by-product that I promised not to use so use your imagination. Huck’s support, like Mitt’s, was representative of the entire Republican demographic. Look at the map people.

Huck had more than the proverbial “half again” more votes than Mitt in Polk County, by far Iowa’s largest and most urbanized county. Mitt won only Dallas County in central Iowa, and that by only 4 votes. Mitt won virtually all of the most populous counties in the Fifth District-completely opposite of the national description of the respective candidate’s demographic base. Since “evangelicals” also voted for Mitt, Fred, to a lesser extent John McCain, and a much lesser extent Ron Paul, Rudy and everyone’s choice for SecDef, Duncan Hunter, Huckabee’s 34% has to include a broader composition than merely the “self-styled evangelicals” (to mimic the MSM refrain).

Fourth, I’m punching the people who base Mitt’s loss on the religious bigotry of Iowans. TRS encountered no one-NO ONE-who said they wouldn’t vote for Mitt because of his LDS faith. Are there a few bigots in Iowa, like everywhere else? Sure. Are they in any way significant. Most certainly not. People who float the bigot rumor insult our state and every one of the 75% of the Republican caucus voters who didn’t vote for Mitt. Its easy to create secret unexpressed reasons for a voter’s choice, just like its easy to be a 9.11 Truther.

Big congratulations are due the whole Huckabee team and special congrats to Altoona’s own Wes Enos, who put together a sufficient central Iowa organization from almost scratch in about five months. This organization produced a margin in Polk County that was larger than Mitt’s margin in Linn, Johnson, Scott, and Dubuque counties combined.

…………… and now the hard part. This race still has a long way to go-but course is changing and right now, only one runner has a victory lap under their belt.

54 comments:

Anonymous said...

Someone who is essentially a pro-life Democrat wins the Republican caucuses.

We no longer deserve first in the nation status.

Anonymous said...

snake oil

No, we wouldn't deserve it if that snake oil purveyor from the east coast wss able to change all his views and come to Iowa and buy the election.

So, we really do deserve the first in the nation status, because we took a deep look at the candidates and the majority of us decided that Huck was the most authentic, consistent, populist, compassionate conservative in the field. And we wouldn't be bought off by the "establishment" GOP'ers like yourself.

Anonymous said...

As a former Iowan, I was proud of the caucus last night. Way to go on all sides! The informed discussions and polite debate clearly demonstrated that Iowa should remain first.

Now on Huckabee, I am a very moderate Floridian who knows Teddy. I am one of the few pro-choice Republicans out there. When I worked in DC about 12 years ago, Mike Huckabee came to the think tank at which I was employed. He was the new Lt. Gov. of Arkansas at the time and was left talking with recent college graudate ME for 5-10 minutes. I still remember him of all the important people I was privilaged enough to meet because he was intelligent (most of them were), but also a sincere and kind person. He also was respectful of everyone - none of the I'm important and you're not behavior. His demeanor bridges gaps and allows discourse - which I believe would facilitate getting real work done in DC. Iowans chose him based on his merits and this is coming from someone who is not an evangelical. To reduce your choice to bigotry against the LDS is simply the elite establishment not getting it - great choice!

Anonymous said...

Iowans did great work last night on both sides of the aisle. Iowans decided that the Shillary Clinton style of politics is no longer welcome.

Too bad the Romney people didn't learn that before it was too late.

Most of the republicans I know were still undecided right up to the caucus, but started to galvanize towards Huck when Mitt went evil (negative).

I know very few evangelical christians. I know mostly just regular folks who are mostly quiet church goers or not church goers at all.

The Media continues to lose credibility by assuming Huck only was good with evangelicals and that Mitt has issues with Mormanism.

We rejected Mitt because Mitt is a phony.

We chose Huck because Huck is not a phony.

Anonymous said...

Ted - stop the bs. A lot of Christians voted for Mike because of his religion. They did not vote for Mitt because of his religion. If you believe anything else I can tell you for sure.... you sir, are NOT an evangelical!

Anonymous said...

I woke up this morning feeling like the entire world had been turned upside down.

Jesse Jackson, Al Sharpton and the rest of the race baiters went out of business. They no longer can sell their hatred.

The democrats seem a lot friendlier and pleasant today. I can't wait to say Hello and Thank You to them.

The screaming and shouting seems to have stopped. Will Congress finally start acting like adults and see their scores improve? It's quieter now.

The sun is shining and the people are back in charge of the country.

Anonymous said...

I couldn't help but notice that Martin Luther King Jr was a big winner last night. The content of the character won out over the color of their skin and the color of their gender.

Character won hands down on both sides.

Anonymous said...

Given the Clintons’ obvious descent from the familia Dracul a third place finish might be like a low dose of sunlight, not enough to kill but hot enough to maim. On the other hand it might be like a Van Helsing garlic soaked silver arrow-instant incineration.
---
OMG Teddy - This is hysterical. I'm just catching up and reading this after the fact. It's funnier knowing you wrote that BEFORE we got results.

Anonymous said...

Boy those last four posts are a load of crap.

Anonymous said...

So, the folks who suggested that the straw poll wasn't important are fired this morning, right?

The Straw Poll gave birth to Huck and was the fatal wound to both Rudy and McCain.

Anonymous said...

Ted - I recall you saying for years that the person who wins Polk County wins. If you don't win Polk, you can't win the state. Looks like you were proven right on that point. Wes was listening. Wes, your stock just went way up. Congratulations to you!!!

Anonymous said...

Hey Uncle Teddy - I'm recalling your frequent calls for new methods, procedures and tactics. Looks like you were right on that one too.

Anonymous said...

How many lamps did Hillary break last night and has anyone seen Mark Penn today???? Is he among the living?

Anonymous said...

Ted, what happened in Waterloo last night? What a mess! Channel 7 was reporting a LOT of people leaving the caucus because they couldn't even get TO the caucus. Where was the logic in that event?

Anonymous said...

I wonder how soon Hillary will start spinning that her loss was due to the fact the Iowa democrats are just unwilling to vote for a woman.

Is Taxanne Conlin in charge of that message?

Anonymous said...

TRS saw you on the channel 2 news you did a great job. I intend to promote your blog among my lists along with seans, may i suggest a new poll? you were the guy who told me the paulies are our people you were right. NEW POLL: Should the Ron Paul People be considered in our party? I say yes the only thing I disagree with them on is foreign policy, and guess what most of the Paulies are more libertarian, or constitutinalists, than anti war

Anonymous said...

anon 10:12 Most definately an evangelical. I did not know whether Ted was one or not. I was correct in my statement. Your problem is? Being an evangelical, a lot of evangelicals only looked at the fact that Mitt is a mormon. That fact alone was enough for them not to vote for him. This is a fact. This is how evangelical churches teach us. My point is, yes, we are bigoted. Yes, we do make our choices based on our religious beliefs. Our entire lives are based on what we believe the Bible teaches us. I have no shame in saying that I believe that Mormonism is a cult. I have no shame in saying that as an evangelical I vote for what I believe my faith leads me to vote for. If I am a bigot. Sue me.

Anonymous said...

Someone needs to answer for what happened in Black Hawk County.

Anonymous said...

Thanks anon 11:20, but I honestly cant, and wont take full credit for our win last night. I could have never accomplished what we did last night on my own. I want to take a moment to thank the countless volunteers, supporters and especially our campaign manager Eric Woolson for giving me the chance to lead this campaign to the victory we took last night.

It’s a whole new day in Iowa and I cant wait to work with the great folks over on Romney, McCain, Fred, and Rudy’s staff again as one Iowa team. In spite of the sometimes bitter nature of a national campaign and the hot lights of media attention we all face, the class with which our Iowa staffers conduct themselves is a testament to the strength of the Iowa Republican Party.

Whereever the path from here takes us, I wish all of you the best.

Anonymous said...

This is a new day, a new state,” she (Shillary) went on, saying that the New Hampshire primary process does not leave voters “disenfranchised,” in the same way Iowa’s late-night caucusing process does.

Anonymous said...

It’s hard to say when we will see
A lib as glib as Huckabee.

Pretending he’s above the fray
Telling others THEY should pray.

Religion is his tool of choice.
He’s armed with sermonizing voice.

Self-canonized, and very shrewd,
He sneakily gets others screwed.

Anonymous said...

Exerpt from Bryon York's article on how Huck beat Mitt.

...Before the event — one in which Romney’s appearance was jarringly preceded by a music system playing Garth Brooks drinking songs — Eric Fehrnstrom, a spokesman who had traveled with Romney all around Iowa, explained his view of the Huckabee campaign.

“We’re going up against a loose confederation of fair taxers, and homeschoolers, and Bible study members, and so this will be a test to see who can generate the most bodies on caucus day,” Fehrnstrom said.

“Not that there’s anything wrong with any of those groups?” I interrupted.

http://article.nationalreview.com/print/?q=YzgzYzBjZjg2YWM3ZTU1MjNhZDFjMmFiM2U4MGI3MmQ=

Anonymous said...

Fehrnstrom, like the rest of Romney’s team, was unfailingly professional.

But his analysis pointed to a blind spot in the Romney campaign, a blind spot most likely shared by the candidate himself.

For all his money, and all his energy, and all his organizational skills, Romney could not put to rest the doubts many Iowa Republicans felt about his genuineness, or lack of genuineness.

As they paid more attention to politics in the days leading up to the caucuses, some of those voters came to believe that Huckabee had more of that indefinable something that they want in a candidate.

In the end, the race wasn’t about infrastructure at all — something Romney never figured out but Huckabee knew all along.

Anonymous said...

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/04/opinion/04brooks.html?_r=1&ref=opinion&oref=slogin

David Brooks has a must read that he penned from Ottumwa and published today.

He correctly identifies that this election represents change on the scale of an earthquake.
---
Huckabee understands much better than Mitt Romney that we have a crisis of authority in this country.

People have lost faith in their leaders’ ability to respond to problems.

While Romney embodies the leadership class, Huckabee went after it. He criticized Wall Street and K Street.

Most importantly, he sensed that conservatives do not believe their own movement is well led.

He took on Rush Limbaugh, the Club for Growth and even President Bush.

The old guard threw everything they had at him, and their diminished power is now exposed

Anonymous said...

MORE:

Huckabee understands how middle-class anxiety is really lived.

Democrats talk about wages. But real middle-class families have more to fear economically from divorce than from a free trade pact.

A person’s lifetime prospects will be threatened more by single parenting than by outsourcing.

Huckabee understands that economic well-being is fused with social and moral well-being, and he talks about the inter-relationship in a way no other candidate has.

In that sense, Huckabee’s victory is not a step into the past.

It opens up the way for a new coalition.

Anonymous said...

AND FINALLY:

A conservatism that recognizes stable families as the foundation of economic growth is not hard to imagine.

A conservatism that loves capitalism but distrusts capitalists is not hard to imagine either.

Adam Smith felt this way. A conservatism that pays attention to people making less than $50,000 a year is the only conservatism worth defending.

Anonymous said...

A snippet from an editorial in The Economist"

Mr McCain licked his chops after Mr Huckabee's victory, saying it proved Iowa could not be bought.

Ken R said...

Wes, IowaFathers.com congratulates Huck on his win and I am sure many of our members supported him in the Caucus yesterday!

I am sure you were very instrumental in his win and your work was essential to his victor in conjunction with having a great candidate.

Ken R said...

Wes, IowaFathers.com congratulates Huck on his win and I am sure many of our members supported him in the Caucus yesterday!

I am sure you were very instrumental in his win and your work was essential to his victor in conjunction with having a great candidate.

Anonymous said...

Do you all remember the commercial where Hillary's mother said about Hillary:

Hillary was never an envious girl. She was really nice, really, seriously. I'm not kidding. She's really really nice.

Have you all been hearing Hillary Trash Iowa Democrats today?

She doesn't sound envious at all. She sounds so very very nice.

Ken R said...

Jesse is too busy shaking down white owned businesses to run for President as kickbacks pay much better for him. Although, I think he supports Hillary so voting for her will be the same as voting for him.

As for minister Je$$e Jack$on I think he gets more women in his current position and running for Pres may be a hinderance. The good news for the Reverennnnnd Jack$on is his love children don't have to be born thanks to his switch from Pro-Life to Pro-Abortion.

Anonymous said...

Hey - Club for Growth

Romney spent $238 per vote
Huck spent $35 per vote

Who's the fiscal conservative?

Anonymous said...

The Theory of Huckativity:

Carter + Clinton = Huckabee

Anonymous said...

Votes by County

Polk - 22,493
Linn - 7339
Scott - 5454
Story - 4639
Dallas - 3970
Johnson - 3970
Woodbury - 3205
Black Hawk - 3002
Warren - 2636
Pottawattamie - 2524
Sioux - 2140

The concentration of voters in Central Iowa is astounding. Polk is the middle and is surrounded by Warren, Dallas and Story.

Anonymous said...

Polk County had 20% of the total vote, if 112,000 is a good number for statewide turnout.

Nice job Polk County Republicans turning out for the good of the order.

The Deplorable Old Bulldog said...

Anon 6:47

Thanks for saving me the time of listing the numbers. Yes, we have to change our party mentality to accept the reality that most of the Iowa Republican now lives in a few large counties, just like most Iowans.

The numbers really speak for themselves. Polk (almost entirely urban/suburban) and its suburban and exurban counties (Dallas, Story and Warren, but excluding Jasper, Marshall and Boone for the sake of this argument only) produced a Republican turnout of 33,798, or more than a quarter of the state wide turn.

Throwing in the other five more remote Golden Circle counties adds another 7606 votes for a Golden Circle total of 41,404. That means more than one third of the total state wide vote came from a circular area that was not more than 60 miles from party HQ in Des Moines.

The potential is huge if we Rs refocus our efforts.

Anonymous said...

According to the map, the bulk of the red meat, Steve King, evangelical christian, rural, district 5 voted for Mitt.

According to the exit polls, 8 out of 10 people who voted for Huck identifed themselves as evangelical Christians.

Turnout amongst those that identify themselves as evengelical christians increased from about 45% to 60%.

So, where did they all come from if not from the place where they all live?

All the urban myths are being smashed.

Our traditionally identified hard core right wingers voted for Mitt, yet the evangelical christians overwhelmingly voted for Huck.

Anonymous said...

Don't forget that hard core right winger, evangelical christian 5th District Congressman Steven King endorsed Fred Thompson, NOT Mike Huckabee.

The BLUE Polk county voted for Huck 8000 votes to Mitts and McCains combined total of a little over 8000.

The RED Western counties voted for Mitt.

Anonymous said...

Everyone is overlooking the stunning success of Mark Klein's campaign. He is the real winner!

I went to his after party at the Motel 6. The entertainment was two kids he had pulled in off the street. One played the recorder, the other a kazoo. The food was top notch as well; stale Fritos piled up on a blanket in the corner of the room.

As the kazoo and recorder band struck up "Hail to the Chief" Quack Klein strode to the stage to the approbation of a raucous crowd, consisting of his wife. He then proceeded to rail against the injustice of the Polk County GOP for not putting him on Sporer's poll, thereby killing his campaign.

Later, the maid service came by, yelled at him in Bosnian, and threw his literature in the trash. Klein told me he believed the rival campaigns sent the Bosnian maids over as part of a plot to sabotage his campaign.

A good time was had by all.

Anonymous said...

Anon 8:41 is only half right. Mitt only took Woodbury, Plymouth and Ida Counties. He also took Palo Alto, but that’s on the outskirts of the NW IA area. Mitt only took Plymouth by about 50 votes where Huckabee killed Mitt in the big prize of Sioux and then in Obrien, Lyon, Osceola, Dickinson, Clay, Sac, Buena Vista, Cherokee, and Calhoun Counties. It appears that Romney only grabbed the coasts of Iowa from Council Bluffs to Sioux Cities ... Which are the only counties the Dems are at least competitive in in Kings district. The Counties in the district that really keep King in office swung for Huckabee, many in a big way. But the truly amazing county was Polk. Mitt got destroyed there. Mitt was also sent packing in Wapello by a huge margin … Which is a democratic stronghold county, and well as Black Hawk County. If you look at Huckabee’s victory in Iowa, its as remarkable as it is baffling. Huckabee seemed to have a coalition of support and was not, as billed, limited to Christians and Home Schoolers.

Anonymous said...

As long as Klein stays gone is all that matters. But, Klein did pull an upset after all! He tied Alan Keyes who also got zero votes last time I checked. For that matter, we all tied Klein and Alan Keyes as well as almost every other crackpot running for President like the fellow who thinks he's Jesus as not one of them got a vote. But the stale fritos were so good at the Klein victory party.

Anonymous said...

I wouldn't be shocked if the Romney campaign is giving a lot of pink slips to their Iowa staff after the embarassment of Thursday.

Lets really look hard here at this.. Romney had set up an organization that hadn't been seen before in an Iowa caucus campaign.

It was a tightly run, well financed operation. They had operational efforts set up in all 99 counties...

They were the only campaign that had been consistenly on the air, mailings, phone calls, etc in the entire year before the caucus.

The bottom line is that the Romney camp should have walked away with Iowa easily...

No..the collapse in Iowa isnt Hillary's campaign..its the Romney campaign.

And somewhere..I'm sure that Gross, Collins, and Kennedy are wondering just what they have to do to ever win an Iowa political campaign.

Anonymous said...

ole:

Huck was the most authentic, consistent, populist, compassionate conservative in the field.

I, for one, am sick to death of "compassionate conservatives." We have one in the WH now and look where that has landed us. Non WOT domestic discretionary spending up 35% in his first term, increases in the size and scope of the federal government, open borders and a general disregard of the Constitution.

Gomer is NOT populist at all, he is outright socialist. The fair tax is a great idea but it was not his and he was not able to defend the idea in debates. When it came right down to it in Arkansas, Gomer landed on the side of HIGHER taxes and MORE government. He has not promoted smaller government at any time. The only things he has been consistent on are raising taxes, amnesty for illegals and knowingly unleashing psychopaths onto an unsuspecting population.

And we wouldn't be bought off by the "establishment" GOP'ers like yourself.

Wrong guy. I was only a Republican on Thursday night. I was no party prior to that and I sent in a voter registration card changing my affiliation back to no party.

Anonymous said...

As an almost lifelong Republican (OK so I voted for Carter in 1976--I was 18 at the time and didn't know any better!) there are a few things we simply MUST keep in mind:

1. Come November, ANY Republican candidate is better than what the Dems are going to throw at us! We let the US go back blue and we get socialism--plain and simple!

2. This was NOT an evangelical vote. To say it was disregards what I learned in statistics at one of our state institutions: 45% does not a majority make! Let's face it--we can't agree on religion. Never have and never will. We can't agree on what is acceptable music, when to baptize, when to stand and when to sit. We simply can't agree and we all have the audacity to think WE are the only ones who are right. Yet, we somehow believe that we put that aside and blindly follow ONE candidate? Well, Thursday we didn't but that seems to be the way it's reported! If Huck only got 45% then others got the evangelical majority.

3. It's time we started speaking--and speaking in loud, simple english--what the Dems are really encouraging: MORE government, less personal control, higher taxes, and a lesser way of life. Socialized medicine with national health care makes our personal employers decision to offer us health care moot. Why would Principal offer it's employees health care if the government is already doing it? They won't. We simply can't afford to cover all of us! The only option under that scenario is to cut services, choices and availability. UGH! Corporate Greed isn't a bad thing, is it? Don't we want our employers to make a profit? Don't we want the companies we hold in our IRAs and 401k to make a profit?

4. We need to figure out a way to overcome this notion that the Rep party is only for the rich. If it is, what am I doing here? I am not rich--I am middle class. I will probably never be rich. I will never have a 25,000 sq foot mansion! Heck, all the houses on my block probably don't add up to that! How can anyone say Edwards, Clinton and Ted Kennedy understand what the average person is going thru? None have ever really had a real job! THEY are wealthy!

The real winner on Thursday? There wasn't one! We still have entirely too many candidates and we are still polarized--even within our own party. We ultimately need to come together in Nov and kick some serious booty. But, we need to remember to not neglect our intrinsic values in the process. President Romney, President Huckabee, President McCain, even President Paul (oh how I pray NOT!) is better than another President Clinton! Or President NiceHair!

Let's make November a landslide!!

Anonymous said...

I wonder who is behind the spin that Huck can be dismissed because he's "just" an evangelical and "only" evangelicals voted for him. The facts clearly tell a different story. Huck's support was deep and wide.

At my caucus, we ran out of voter registration forms and luckily were able to successfully steal a big wad of them from the d's caucusing so we could accomodate everyone that wanted to vote.

By a show of hands, about 80% of the crowd were first time caucusers.

Our caucus voted overwhelmingly for Huckabee. Mitt was distant second. McCain was a distant third.

Huckabee expanded the base. In fact, we now have a new base.

I wonder where the Yepsen base ended up. Ron Paul had more votes than Rudy!

Did the Yepsen base turnout on caucus night and endure the crowds or were they watching the football game? Remember, the Yepsen base all have lives, unlike all those silly soco's who don't.

Where did the Yepsen Mods turn up in the vote?

I think they voted for Huck - the ones that actually put some effort into showing they really care about the country by foregoing the football game and showing up to vote, anyway.

Mods dig Huck too.

Anonymous said...

Those weren't stale fritos served at the Klein victory party, That was SOYLENT GREEN, SOYLENT GREEN, you animals, SOYLENT GREEN!!!!

Anonymous said...

Hillary had this to say about the Iowa Democrats:

"This is a primary election where, you know, you're not disenfranchised if you work at night. You know, you actually can come out and vote."
---
So, the Iowa democrats set out to disenfranchise the night worker vote. Did the party try to sabotague Hillary by making sure those restaurant workers didn't get to the caucus by purposefully disenfranchising them?

Iowa democrat are such backward crackers that they won't vote for a woman either.

Anonymous said...

Well the process in iowa does work.
before all the GOPers get too confident just remember that the true powers in your party want nothing to do with Old Huck. they will do their best to maintain the status quo.

and remember that when you look at the total votes that the dems brought twice as many folks to the caucus and that Huck finished 4th behind Obama, edwards and Hillary. somewhere the GOP has to examine why their message is being discarded by the general population.
Do you really think that the staged prayer circle performed by those arkansas natives will be the ticket to draw the general population?

do you really think that Rudy's idea of having cheney be VICE satan again will win the general population.

No one talks about Ron Paul 10% of the vote that is basically libertarian in nature as opposed to The GOP image of evangelical and corporate control?

gee maybe Old Huck will preach how we will all be saved if we ride the (holy highway) I-35 and put him at 1600 penn which is near I-95.
Maybe he is the messiah that will save the GOP and cast all the demons that have controlled the party since 1980 back into the pits of hell.

Anonymous said...

Republican's should be ashamed of ourselves. The dems outnumbered our voting 2-1.

Anonymous said...

Jerry you need to spend sometime with the Dalai Lama in search of inner peace.

Those demons you fear are firmly affixed betwixt your ears.

Anonymous said...

Anon 3:25, the Dems always have higher turnout. The nature of their contest basically forces the candidates to launch large scale turnout efforts of undecided voters because they have to contend with viability thresholds. Even if you arent someones first choice, you still want them there because you may be their second.

On the GOP side meanwhile, the candidates avoid turning out undecided voters because high numbers of undecided voters could come back to haunt the candidates.

Compairing the GOP and Dem caucus turnout is a lot like compairing apples to oranges .... Its a whole different animal. We can be proud at the record breaking turnout we did have. We done Iowa!

Anonymous said...

Lets make no mistake. You can spend time and money in the traditional way and build an organization like Mitt Romney. Or you can rent the ICA, IFPC and IRL and get off cheap like Mike Huckabee and hope for a bounce nationally. Too bad these groups don't travel. Is there any doubt where the real politcal clout is in Iowa?

Ken R said...

I am sure Huckabee didn't rent anybody.

Anonymous said...

Not to mention the fact that at least as many ICA board members (includeing the chairman) endorsed Mitt before the caucus. The arguement from Romney that there was some conspiracy by Christians to destory him is getting a little old ... and less creditable every time he loses another state.

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