The Real Sporer is not often surprised but today I received a bit of unexpected news. After sitting in the Polk County Courthouse during a trial all day, I returned to find my telephone ringing off the hook ……… and it wasn’t about the trial.
Of course, I too am baffled at the logic that would lead to the conclusion that the Ames Straw Poll would not have benefited their respective candidacies. Under what circumstances could speaking before the largest gathering of Republicans in the history of the party, not the Iowa Republican Party but the entire national Republican Party, before a global television audience in the first state to actually vote for nominees, not help a candidate?
The people who attend the Straw Poll not only almost all attend the caucuses but they are the precinct leaders who drive the caucuses. The 30-40 thousand attendees in Ames this August are going to have five months to ponder the Giuliani/McCain absences.
It will be difficult for Iowa Republicans to forget the following from the Giuliani state chair Jim Nussle:
“Certainly, if you're part of the party you want to raise as much money as possible, and making the straw poll significant is to your advantage. So there's a reason why they would do it. Others, candidates, who want to use it as a way of making their own candidacy legitimate, will want to make sure their participation or their position at the straw poll is significant. So I understand why people are trying to make the this significant.”
The problem with Jim’ Nussle's logic is the first sentence-“if you’re part of the party”. The question that immediately comes to mind is of what party is the Giuliani campaign a part? Does Jim think that a huge turnout of non party voters will appear at the caucuses and swamp the regular Republicans who usually attend the caucuses? While possible, such an unprecedented occurrence would appear highly unlikely. Far more likely is that the confluence of both resentment and disinterest will simply dismiss the Giuliani campaign by caucus night. The entire Nussle statement is even more dismissive of Iowa Republicans so it is difficult to imagine that the Giuliani campaign is seriously intending to compete in Iowa. So don't be surprised when you hear more of the same as the Caucuses grow more imminent.
The McCain decision is both more and less surprising. A McCain Iowa pullout has been long anticipated by much of conventional wisdom. The Senator crashed in Iowa in 99/00 and burned many bridges in the process so a willingness to embrace the first good excuse to avoid our state isn’t all that shocking.
But McCain seemed to be taking Iowa more seriously this time around. His Iowa team is top flight, with a long history of success all over Iowa. I have been personally assured that McCain is sticking it out to the caucuses by high level McCain people, people in whom I have complete trust. However, can we trust the McCain Washington people to tell the McCain Iowa people the truth? That remains to be seen. The McCain exit was certainly more graceful, and he has the benefit of being able to blame Giuliani but in the end he will conspicuous by his absence and every other candidate will spend every day between now and January reminding the Iowa voters of the McCain 99/00 experience-essentially creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.
The ultimate problem that both Giuliani and McCain have demonstrated by today’s action is the dismissal of the importance of the Republican brand. They aren’t just running for President, they are running to lead the Republican Party. Regardless of what they say, dismissing a party event of the magnitude of the Straw Poll sends a bill board sized message that both candidates feel that party leadership is not a particularly significant aspect of their campaign strategies. Should either receive the nomination they may well find themselves wondering why the same Republicans they rejected fail to rally to them when they do need Iowa’s seven electoral votes.
Of course, in the next seven days Fred Thompson’s formal announcement of participation in the Straw Poll would put this all in better perspective.